Arizona Wildcats MBB: Is This Team A True Title Contender?

The #7/#6 Arizona Wildcats men’s basketball team is only a little less than halfway through the 2014-2015 season, but the same question has been asked all year: Is this year’s team a true title contender? We went into the numbers, of the last five championship teams, to see how this team stacks up to them. Maybe this is the year Sean Miller finally gets a team to the final four and wins a national championship.

Before we get started, please note that the stats and rankings for Arizona are from only 14 games and will change, all other stats and rankings from previous years are final.

*All stats accurate as of games played through 1/5/15

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Offense

The Good: Scoring Offense and Field Goal Percentage

Currently, the Wildcats are 34th in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 76.1 points per game, so far this season. If you compare that to the previous five champions, the Wildcats would be behind the 2012 Kentucky team and the 2010 Duke team. That Kentucky team finished the season ranked 20th in the nation, averaging 77.1 ppg, and the 2010 Duke team finished 23rd, averaging 78.4 ppg. Last season’s champ, the UCONN Huskies, only scored 71.9 ppg, good for 143rd in the nation, and the UCONN 2012 championship team wasn’t that great at scoring the ball either, averaging only 73.4 ppg, good for 63rd in the country.  The 2013 Louisville Cardinals finished their championship season ranked 41st in the nation at 73.6 ppg. If the Wildcats are able to keep up their scoring output, they would be right there with the five previous champions.

Field goal percentage is where the Wildcats really stick out from the crowd. They are currently shooting 50.1% from the field, which is good for eighth in the country. The number will go down as the season goes along, but that is a very good number to be at 14 games into the season. However, field goal percentage can be a little bit overrated when it comes to winning championships. Of the previous five champions, the only team to finish above 107th in field goal percentage was that talented 2012 Kentucky team, which shot a remarkable 48.7% and finished eighth in the nation. The 2014 and 2012 UCONN teams shot 44.8% and 43.3%, respectively in their championship years and the Duke and Louisville championship teams’ shot 44.2% and 44.5%, respectively. So is field goal percentage not a great indication of a champion? No, but scoring the ball often will certainly help, so if Arizona can stay at that 44%-46% range they are in good shape.

The Bad: Offensive Rebounds and Free Throw Percentage  

This team is woefully bad at getting offensive rebounds and converting free points from the charity strike. First, the offensive rebounds, where the Wildcats rank 264th, out of 345 teams, in the nation, grabbing just 9.64 per game so far in 2014. The only other team out of the past five champions to grab less than 12 offensive rebounds per game, the 2014 UCONN Huskies, who grabbed 10.1 per game to rank 241st in the nation. The 2011 UCONN team and the 2010 Duke team each averaged over 14 offensive rebounds per game and ranked in the top 11 in the nation. Think about that for a second. That is around a five rebound difference, or a possible 10-15 extra points, from what Arizona is grabbing this year. Even the 2012 Kentucky team, that never really missed, managed to grab 12.4 offensive rebounds per game. I think this is a problem that Arizona can improve on, though, as the season goes along and they start shooting less than 50%.

One good thing that comes from offensive rebounds is free throws, where the Wildcats do not excel at either. Arizona shoots a painful 65.9% from the free throw line so far this season, which is good for 248th out of 345 teams in the nation. They are not quite as bad at free throws as they are at getting offensive rebounds, but they still need a lot of work getting those free points.  Three out of the last five champions shot above 75% from the free throw line and all five shot greater than 71%. Taking advantage of the free points is huge come tournament time and it is something Sean Miller’s squad needs to work on before March.

Overall

The Wildcats are in pretty good offensive shape come tournament time. The field goal percentage will come down, but not enough to really affect them. With that, the offensive rebounds will shoot up and so should free throw opportunities. However, the one thing I am worried about right now is the free throw line. This team has to get that mark up to the 70% range and take advantage of those free points when they have the chance.

Defense

The Good: Scoring Defense and Field Goal Percentage-Defense

The Wildcats are currently tied for 43rd in the country in scoring defense, holding opponents to just 59.5 ppg so far. The only team, out of the past five champions, to give up less than 60 points per game were the 2012 Louisville Cardinals, but three of the five champions gave up 61 points or less per game. As for field goal percentage on the defensive side, the Wildcats are right at 39%, which is what four of the last five championship teams have been around.  If the Wildcats can stay in the 59-61 points per game mark, and 39%-40% field goal percentage, they would be in good shape heading into March.

The Bad: Blocks

Arizona is a pretty good defensive basketball team and there is not much difference between them and the last few champions, but one thing I did find interesting when researching stats was a block stat. Each of the last three champions had a big force in the center that averaged more than 2.5 blocks per game for their teams. A force in the middle is something very underrated and every team should strive to have. They can affect the way a team plays offensively the entire game. Arizona does not have a shot blocker on this team, with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson leading the team in blocks with one a game (14 in 14 games). This is not a very worrisome stat, but something that I found interesting and thought I would share.

 Overall

Overall I think this team has championship potential, but I’m not sure they are ready to compete with the Dukes and Kentucky of the world at this point in the season. Do I think they are a Final Four team? Yes. Do I think that they could be a championship team by the time March comes? Yes. But for now, they are not ready to beat those top few teams. It will be interesting to see how this team improves on some of the little things as the season progresses. We will do another article like this before the NCAA tournament kicks off to see how this Arizona team improved, or got worse.