Previewing the College World Series for Arizona Baseball

With the College World Series soon beginning, we preview Arizona Baseball as well as the rest of the field that will be playing in Omaha for the next week. 

The College World Series begins Saturday in Omaha, and for Arizona Baseball, they enter with the top scoring offense remaining in the field. However, they will be tested right away against a Vanderbilt team with two starting pitchers expected to go early in the first round of the MLB draft.

The following is a look at each team the Wildcats could face in the CWS, starting with the most likely teams and working to the other bracket.

Arizona Wildcats

Playoff baseball is fickle at any level, but this should help you have at least a basic idea of each team in the tournament as you watch and plot the Wildcats journey to a (hopeful) championship.

By The Numbers

This is a look at each team based mainly on the numbers. The eye test matters too, but sometimes we can’t get to every team in a big field. This will give you a quick look at the strengths and weaknesses (although at this point, weakness is a relative term; all of these teams can ball) of each team and who to watch.

The table below shows relevant offensive and pitching stats (along with fielding percentage) for each team and how it stacks up with the average of the entire field.

Some of these numbers will be referenced below in the look at each team.

(Also, a huge shoutout to each school’s page for having up-to-date stats available):

A Few Notes from Arizona Baseball as they enter the College World Series

• Arizona came into postseason play ranked fifth in the country
• The Wildcats lead the field in batting average, runs scored, and OPS. They don’t stack up quite as high on the home run list, which seems counter-intuitive, but the dimensions of the home parks of the teams at the top of the list, like Tennessee and NC State, are smaller than Hi Corbett Field.
• Arizona is last in stolen bases among the field, with less than half the average of the teams. I don’t put a ton of stock into raw stolen base totals, but it is something that could make a difference late in a game.
• The Wildcats come in below-average in all of the pitching stats (and last in fielding percentage), so they will have to rely on that offense to keep rolling.

First Round – #4 Vanderbilt Commodores (45-15 overall, 3-2 at neutral sites)

The Wildcats will play the second game of the tournament (4 pm Arizona time on ESPN) against a Vanderbilt team ranked fourth in the country entering postseason play. Vanderbilt will rely on their two overpowering starting pitchers, Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, throughout the tournament.

The Commodore’s offense does not let them down, however, as they rank above average in every offensive category listed. Vandy looks to be one of the favorites heading into the tournament

Offense

As mentioned above, the Commodore offense is above average among the eight teams in every offensive category, most notably with a field-high 86 stolen bases and a second-ranked .891 OPS. First baseman Dominic Keegan is the main man to watch, as he leads the team among players with at least 100 at-bats in batting average (.361), OPS (1.114), and doubles (16), and is second with 14 home runs.

Other hitters who stand out are outfielder Enrique Bradfield Jr., who has a .356 batting average and 46 stolen bases; outfielder Isaiah Thomas (great name), who has a .330 average, 13 home runs, and is 12-12 on stolen bases; and infielder Carter Young, who leads the team with 15 home runs.

Pitching

To say the Wildcat offense has a tall task ahead of them would be an understatement. Both Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter are going to hear their names in the top 10 of the MLB draft (and likely in the top 5), and either pitcher against the high-powered Wildcat offense is going to be can’t-miss action.

Who would you rather face?

• Pitcher A: 10-3 record, 2.16 ERA, .127 BAA, and 156 strikeouts in 96 innings
• Pitcher B: 13-3 record, 2.46 ERA, .157 BAA, and 155 strikeouts in 106 innings

If you answered neither, you’re right!! Pitcher A is Leiter, and Pitcher B is Rocker, who seems most likely to start as he has started the first game of the last few playoff rounds.

As a staff, the Commodores have the second-lowest team ERA in the field, at 3.37, and the second most pitcher strikeouts, with 699. They lead all remaining teams in BAA by 28 points, sitting at .185.

Nick Maldonado and Luke Murphy are the two arms out of the bullpen with over 20 appearances, and each has eight saves. Maldonado has a 2.36 ERA, and Murphy has a 2.97 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 33 1/3 innings.

Second Round

Depending on if they win or lose, the Wildcats will play the team with the same result in the first-round game between Stanford and NC State (11 am Arizona time on ESPN).

#9 Stanford Cardinal (38-15 overall, 0-0 at neutral sites)

Stanford comes in below-average in every metric listed other than home runs. Still, they rank ninth in the country and have made it this far, which shows that they have the tools to go all the way and can find ways to win.

Offense

The Cardinal have a balanced attack, with seven players with at least 100 at-bats hitting between .315 and .280. Outfielder Brock Jones leads the team in OPS (1.072), home runs (16), hits (58), and runs scored (53). (He also leads the team with 56 strikeouts.)

Seniors Nick Brueser and Tim Tawa have each hit 11 home runs, and outfielder Christian Robinson is tied for the team lead in hits with Jones and leads the teams with a .315 batting average.

Pitching

The Wildcats would likely face either righty Alex Williams or lefty Quinn Mathews in a potential
matchup. Williams has a 3.06 ERA and a .191 BAA. Mathews has worse numbers, with a 6.15 ERA and .252 BAA, but he has thrown 10 more innings than Williams. I would bet on a Williams matchup, though.

Zach Grech has made 30 appearances (29 in relief) and has 13 saves, so he is likely the closer/high leverage reliever heading into the tournament. No Stanford pitcher with more than 12 innings pitched (other than ace Brendan Beck) has more strikeouts than innings pitched.

North Carolina State Wolfpack (35-18 overall, 3-2 at neutral sites)

The Wolfpack are the only team in Arizona’s bracket that entered postseason play unranked, but they made it to the CWS by slugging their way through the season and into the final tournament. This pitching staff will have to try to keep up for the Wolfpack to make a deep run. The Wolfpack took down the #1 seed in the country, Arkansas, in the super-regionals.

Offense

NC State is second in the field with 89 home runs on the season, and that has helped carry them to the third-highest OPS at .871. Six players have hit double-digit home runs, and five players are batting over .290. It’s hard to stand out among such a balanced group, but outfield Jonny Butler does by leading the team with a .377 batting average, 1.116 OPS, and 16 stolen bases while adding 13 home runs.

Elsewhere, sophomores Tyler McDonough and Luca Tresh lead the team with 15 home runs apiece, and McDonough has a 1.069 OPS and leads the team with 20 doubles.

Pitching

Sam Highfill looks likely to be the pitcher the Wildcats would see in the second round, as he has started the second game in each of the last few playoff rounds. NC State has the worst team ERA in the field at 5.12, but Highfill has a team-best 3.98 ERA among pitchers with more than 14 innings pitched.

Matt Willadsen would be the other option as the team’s third starter, and he sits with a 4.73 ERA. The reliever most likely to see action is Evan Justice, who has 22 appearances this year (18 in relief). Justice has 11 saves, a .193 BAA, and 68 strikeouts in 55 innings.