Arizona vs UCLA Prediction and Promo: Bet $10, Win $200 at WynnBET Sportsbook

The 17-2 #7 Arizona Wildcats hope to exact revenge on the 16-2 #3 UCLA Bruins tonight at 6:00 PM MST. The Bruins beat the Wildcats 75-59 in their first matchup, but WynnBET has Arizona as 7-point favorites and -300 on the moneyline (bet $30 to win $10) while the over/under is 149.

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Here’s how we’re betting tonight’s matchup:

Arizona vs UCLA Prediction

Live by the three, die by the three. The Wildcats offense is a thing of beauty when their shots are falling. They’ve got the 16th-best adjusted offensive efficiency to pair with the 8th best defensive efficiency and exhaust other teams with their ball movement leading to open looks. But sometimes, the shots just don’t fall.

Against UCLA the first time, for example, Arizona shot just 7/28 from beyond the arc and 16/47 on 2-point shots as stars Benedict Mathurin and Kerr Kriisa combined to go 5/34 from the field. A ton of them were open looks. Meanwhile, UCLA shot 8/17 from three despite a season average of just 35.4%. In fact, Shot Quality (a company that measures the quality of a team’s shots instead of whether they just went in) tells us Arizona actually wins that first contest a majority of the time.

The Wildcats are due for some positive shooting regression. They’re just 10/51 on 3-point shots in their last two games. Shooters shoot, as they say. And there’s no better time to snap out of a slump than in a home revenge spot against a Bruins squad on a six-game winning streak.

On the season, Arizona ranks 8th in the country in 2-point shooting percentage at 56.9%. After shooting just 34% in the first game, we can expect positive regression there too.

Oddsmakers certainly expect that. The Wildcats were 2.5-point favorites in the first matchup and are 7-point favorites in this one, so sportsbooks are not deterred by Arizona’s recent shooting woes. Most bettors will see the 7-point line and immediately jump to bet UCLA, but the value lies in trusting the oddsmakers.

Arizona is a perfect 11-0 at home this season and have won by an average of over 28 points a game. UCLA shot 51% on 2-point shots in the first game and I expect Arizona’s #1 ranked 2-point defense (allowing opponents to shoot just 39.1%) to have a better performance.

The Bruins’ offense isn’t the same on the road and the under is 6-0 in their road games this season. With Arizona’s dominant defense and their recent shooting struggles, the under is 4-1 in their last five home games. While I expect some positive shooting regression for Arizona, the negative shooting regression expected for UCLA helps provide value on the under as well.

I’m taking Arizona -7 (-110) in this one as they get their revenge and am also betting the under 149 (-110). This’ll be a great matchup in a fiery environment. Let’s go Wildcats baby.

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