After an impressive 76-66 win over UCLA, the 18-2 No. 7 Arizona Wildcats look to keep rolling as they host the 19-3 No. 19 USC Trojans today at 3:00 p.m. MST. WynnBET has the Wildcats as 11-point favorites and -650 on the moneyline (bet $65 to win $10) while the over/under is 150.5.
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Here’s how we’re betting today’s game:
Arizona vs USC Prediction
Arizona is one of the truly elite teams in college basketball, ranking 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency and eighth in defensive, per Bart Torvik. They’re first in 2-point defensive shooting percentage and 12th in offensive rebounding rate, so they’re able to prevent easy shots for their opponents while giving themselves plenty of extra chances.
The Wildcats take on a USC team that, despite winning two in a row, has struggled of late. They’ve failed to cover the spread in their last three games and barely beat a pitiful Arizona State team. It’s their offense that’s been an issue and with the 96th-ranked 2-point shooting percentage up against Arizona’s incredible rim protection, I don’t think today is the day they break out of their slump.
That being said, I worry about a potential let-down game for Arizona after an emotional win over UCLA. So instead of looking to the spread, I’ll be playing the total.
The under is 8-2 in Arizona’s last 10 and 4-0 in their last four home games, while it’s 3-1 in USC’s last four as their offense has sputtered.
What’s more, only twice this season has the total in a USC game closed above 150 and it went under both times. With the 205th-fastest adjusted tempo, the Trojans just don’t play a style that lends itself to a ton of scoring.
I’ll take the under 150.5 (-110) as my best bet in this one as the defenses play well enough to slow the scoring down.
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