Arizona is ninth among the 10 teams with at least a 10.0 percent chance to reach the Final Four per the ESPN Basketball Power Index. The BPI projects Arizona with a 13.7 percent chance of reaching the Final Four. Duke is first with a 57.2 percent chance of reaching the Final Four per the BPI.
The Blue Devils are the only team with better than a 50.0 percent chance of reaching the Final Four. Arizona is in a good position to reach at least the Elite Eight with a 32.4 percent chance. The BPI projects Arizona with a 62.7 percent chance of reaching the Sweet 16 and a 95.1 percent chance of making the second round.
The Big 12 and SEC each have four teams among the top nine in the projections. Houston leads Big 12 teams in the projections. Only Duke has better projections in the NCAA Tournament than Houston. Iowa State and Texas Tech are seventh and eighth in the BPI projections.
Arizona is a rarity with games against four of the top eight teams this season. Arizona lost 69-55 to Duke in November, 62-58 to Houston last month and won and home and lost on the road to Iowa State and Texas Tech. Those six games should prepare Arizona well for the NCAA Tournament.
Team | Win Title | Title Game | Final Four | Elite Eight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Duke | 29.7 | 41.9 | 57.2 | 71.7 |
Houston | 20.2 | 32.5 | 49.6 | 65..9 |
Auburn | 15.4 | 27.8 | 44.5 | 61.9 |
Tennessee | 4.4 | 11.0 | 24.0 | 45.5 |
Alabama | 4.1 | 10.2 | 23.4 | 32.4 |
Florida | 4.1 | 9,8 | 21.3 | 44.9 |
Iowa State | 2.7 | 7.1 | 16.7 | 38.6 |
Texas Tech | 2.5 | 6.6 | 14.6 | 36.3 |
Arizona | 2,2 | 6.0 | 13.7 | 32.4 |
Michigan State | 1.6 | 4.6 | 11.1 | 31.3 |
The BPI ranks Arizona with the seventh most difficult schedule. Arizona has the 24th-best strength of record which would project them as a sixth seed on the S-curve. Joe Lunardi of ESPN currently has Arizona as a four-seed in his bracketology which was updated on Tuesday.
Arizona is 7-8 against the top 50 teams in the BPI. Nine Big 12 teams are ranked in the top 50, plus Arizona played Duke, UCLA and Wisconsin. Kansas hosts Arizona in the regular season finale on Saturday. Arizona clinched at least the third seed in the Big XII Tournament and will play its quarterfinal on March 13.