The ESPN Football Power Index favors Arizona in five of their remaining 2025 games and has the Wildcats close to a 50 percent chance to win in one game as an underdog. Arizona has at least a 40 percent chance to win per the ESPN FPI in every game but one in the remaining 2025 schedule.
Arizona has their second-best chance to win this season at 60.7 percent, according to the ESPN FPI when they host Kansas State on Friday night. Kansas State began the season ranked but losses to Iowa State and Army and a 38-25 win over Football Championship Subdivision North Dakota have diminished the Wildcats.
Arizona is favored in four of its five remaining home games and one 2025 road game. Arizona is projected to have 7.1 wins and 5.0 losses in the current ESPN FPI simulations. The Wildcats began the season with a projected record of 4.9 wins and 7.1 losses in the ESPN FPI.
A 40-6 win in the season opener over Hawaii and a 48-3 victory over Weber State on Saturday have significantly improved the projections for Arizona in the ESPN FPI. Kansas State is not the opponent they were expected to be at the beginning of the season. At worst Kansas State was expected to win two of its first three games.
Date | Opponent | Chance to win |
|---|---|---|
9/12 | Kansas State | 60.7 |
9/27 | At Iowa State | 33.4 |
10/4 | Oklahoma State | 87.5 |
10/11 | BYU | 36.5 |
10/18 | At Houston | 49.5 |
11/1 | At Colorado | 54.5 |
11/8 | Kansas | 51.9 |
11/15 | At Cincinnati | 42.1 |
11/22 | Baylor | 53.5 |
11/29 | At Arizona State | 40.2 |
Arizona is favored to beat Oklahoma State, Colorado on the road, Kansas and Baylor in its remaining 2025 games in addition to Kansas State. As the table shows above, Arizona is projected with a 49.5 percent chance to win at Houston and is an underdog at Iowa State, versus BYU and at Cincinnati and Arizona State.
BYU is the only team remaining on the 2025 Arizona schedule ranked in the top 20 of the ESPN FPI. Arizona hosts BYU on October 11. Iowa State hosts Arizona on September 28 with the Wildcats given a 33.4 percent chance to beat the Cyclones. That is projected as the toughest remaining 2025 game for Arizona.
Five remaining games on the 2025 Arizona schedule give the Wildcats between a 49 and 55 percent chance to win. Arizona is favored in four of those games. Winning the toss-up games will likely determine if Arizona wins four games in 2025 to become bowl eligible.