Arizona is the projected favorite in only two of its remaining six games by the ESPN Football Power Index. The FPI projects Arizona with an 89.8 percent chance to beat Oklahoma State on Saturday and a 50.3 percent chance over Baylor on November 22.
Most of the individual game projections dropped significantly for Arizona after the 39-14 loss at Iowa State on Saturday. The Cincinnati and Baylor games had the most significant drops in projections for Arizona over its final eight games.
Arizona went from being projected with a 60.6 percent chance to beat Baylor to 50.3 percent after the week five games concluded. Arizona had a 39.8 percent chance to win at Cincinnati entering week four and its 28.5 percent now.
Every Arizona game for the remainder of the season had a drop in the percentage that Arizona is projected to win. Oklahoma State, which is 1-3 and 2-3 Colorado are the only teams with losing records remaining on the 2025 schedule.
Date | Opponent | Record | Chance to win | Previous Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
10/4 | Oklahoma State | 1-3 | 89.8 | 91.8 |
10/11 | BYU | 4-0 | 25.5 | 32.3 |
10/18 | At Houston | 4-0 | 41.5 | 47.0 |
11/1 | At Colorado | 2-3 | 49.4 | 57.7 |
11/8 | Kansas | 3-2 | 43.3 | 47.7 |
11/15 | At Cincinnati | 3-1 | 28.5 | 39.8 |
11/22 | Baylor | 3-2 | 50.3 | 60.6 |
11/29 | Arizona State | 4-1 | 29.3 | 37.2 |
The November 1 game at Colorado is the only one that Arizona went from being projected to win by the ESPN FPI to now being predicted to lose. Arizona was projected with a 57.7 percent chance to beat Colorado to 49.4 percent in the ESPN FPI update. Colorado lost 24-21 to BYU late on Saturday night.
Despite being favored in only two of their remaining games by the ESPN FPI, the metric projects Arizona to finish with 6.6 wins, 5.4 losses and an 80.4 percent chance to win six games and become bowl eligible.
Arizona dropped from 42nd to 53rd in the ESPN FPI entering week six. The Wildcats will play three of the four Big XII teams below them in the FPI in their remaining six games. Houston is 53rd, Colorado is 56th and Oklahoma State is 106th in the ESPN FPI. Oklahoma State is the lowest-rated power conference team in the ESPN FPI.