Arizona remains favored in three of remaining nine games in the week five ESPN Football Power Index update. Iowa State has a 61.3 percent chance to beat Arizona on Saturday. Arizona and Iowa State both had byes in week four.
Arizona is favored against Oklahoma State on October 4, at Colorado on November 1 and versus Baylor on November 22. The ESPN FPI provides Arizona with a 91.8 percent chance to beat Oklahoma State in its October 4 Big XII opener, 57.7 versus Colorado and 60.6 against Baylor.
Arizona has a 47.0 chance to win on October 18 at Houston and 47.7 percent versus Kansas on November 8 in games that are bascially toss ups. The Wildcats are a significant underdog in its remaining four games.
Arizona is projected with a 32.3 percent chance to defeat BYU on October 11, 39.8 percent at Cincinnati on November 15 and 37.2 percent at Arizona State on November 29. Iowa State who is 4-0 and BYU and Houston at 3-0 are the only teams currently undefeated remaining on the 2025 Arizona schedule.
Date | Opponent | Record | Chance to win | Previous Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
9/27 | At Iowa State | 4-0 | 38.7 | 38.9 |
10/4 | Oklahoma State | 1-2 | 91.8 | 89.0 |
10/11 | BYU | 3-0 | 32.3 | 37.4 |
10/18 | At Houston | 3-0 | 47.0 | 48.3 |
11/1 | At Colorado | 2-2 | 57.7 | 60.7 |
11/8 | Kansas | 3-1 | 47.7 | 46.8 |
11/15 | At Cincinnati | 2-1 | 39.8 | 39.4 |
11/22 | Baylor | 2-2 | 60.6 | 58.6 |
11/29 | Arizona State | 3-1 | 37.2 | 39.9 |
The ESPN FPI which takes a broader view of the schedule than the specific games projects Arizona to finish with 7.5 wins and 4.5 losses in their simulations and a 92.8 percent chance to win six games and become bowl eligible.
The game against Oklahoma State will take on a different tone after the Cowboys fired longtime head coach Mike Gundy on Tuesday. Oklahoma State has not announced an interim head coach. Arizona should become an even greater favorite to beat Oklahoma State with the Cowboys in transition.
Oklahoma State is the only team remaining on the 2025 Arizona schedule with a losing record. Arizona has the 120th strength of schedule of schedule nationally and the 48th toughest SOS per the ESPN FPI. Iowa State should be the highest ranked team Arizona plays in 2025.