Arizona has a 68.2 percent chance to defeat Baylor and a 49.1 percent to defeat Arizona State in the updated ESPN Football Power Index simulations. The ESPN FPI projects Arizona with a 33.4 percent chance to win each of its final two 2025 regular-season games.
Arizona is projected to finish with 8.2 wins and 3.8 losses per the ESPN FPI simulations. The numbers for Arizona increased from a 60.7 percent chance of defeating Baylor and a 43.9 percent chance of beating Arizona State after week 11 results.
Arizona won 30-24 at then 25th-ranked Cincinnati on Saturday. Baylor lost 55-28 at Utah on Saturday and Arizona State had a bye week. Arizona is now 36th in the ESPN FPI, Arizona State is 45th and Baylor is 52nd. Arizona is a 6.5-point favorite over Baylor in the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Arizona State is at Colorado on Saturday. The ESPN FPI projects ASU with a 63.2 percent chance to defeat Colorado on Saturday. Arizona State is a 6.5-point favorite at Colorado. Arizona beat Colorado 52-17 as a 4.5-point favorite on November 1.
Category | Baylor | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
Date | 11/22 | 11/29 |
Record | 5-5 | 7-3 |
Chance to Win | 68.2 | 49.1 |
Previous Projection | 60.7 | 43.8 |
Arizona clinched a winning season no matter what the outcome is against Baylor, at Arizona State and in its bowl game. The 2025 season is only the second time in the last eight years Arizona will finish with a winning record. Arizona finished 10-3 during the 2023 season.
Arizona and Baylor are two of the better offenses in the Big XII. Baylor is fifth in the Big XII, averaging 33.2 points per game and Arizona is sixth, posting 32.7 per contest. Arizona will have a significant advantage over Baylor defensively.
Arizona is fourth in the Big XII, allowing 20.3 PPG. Baylor is 15th in the Big XII, permitting 31.9 PPG. Iowa State, BYU and Houston are the only teams to score over 30 points and defeat Arizona during the 2025 season.