The ESPN Football Power Index projections for Arizona have dropped in two of its last three 2025 regular-season games. Arizona has a better chance of winning on Saturday at Cincinnati, but the projections have dropped against Baylor and the final regular-season game at Arizona State.
Arizona now has a 32.0 percent chance to win at Cincinnati on Saturday. The projections after week 11 gave Arizona a 24.6 percent chance to win at Cincinnati. Arizona is 6-3 after a 24-20 win over Kansas on Saturday. Cincinnati is 7-2 overall and 5-1 in the Big XII after a bye week.
Arizona has a 60.9 percent chance of defeating Baylor on November 22. The ESPN FPI previously projected Arizona with a 61.9 percent chance of beating Baylor. Baylor is 5-4 overall and 3-3 in the Big XII entering week 12. Utah is at Baylor on Saturday.
Arizona has a 43.9 percent chance to win in the final 2025 regular-season game at Arizona State. The Wildcats previously had a 44.1 percent chance to win at ASU Arizona State is still in the race to defend its Big XII title. The Sun Devils are 6-3 overall and 4-2 in the Big XII, one game behind the leaders in the loss column.
Date | Opponent | Record | Chance to win | Previous Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
11/15 | At Cincinnati | 7-2 | 32.0 | 24.6 |
11/22 | Baylor | 5-5 | 60.7 | 61.9 |
11/29 | At Arizona State | 6-3 | 43.9 | 44.1 |
One win in their final three games would clinch a winning season for Arizona for the second time since 2018. Arizona has already won two more games in 2025 than they did during the 2024 season, when the Wildcats finished 4-8. Two of Arizona's three 2025 losses came on the final play of the game.
Arizona has improved significantly in 2025. The Wildcats averaged 21.8 points per game and allowed 31.8 in 2024. In 2025, Arizona is averaging 33.0 PPG and allowing 19.9 in 2025. Brent Brennan has Arizona trending up after an extremely disappointing 2024 season.