Arizona ESPN FPI projections for remainder of 2024 season
The ESPN Football Power Index has Arizona as a favorite in one of their last five games. The projections for Arizona continued to trend down following the 41-19 loss at BYU on Saturday. A 4-8 season after finishing 10-3 in 2023 would be a precipitous fall for Arizona after being picked to finish fifth in the Big XII preseason media poll.
Arizona fell two spots to 58th in the post week seven FPI. Houston is the only team remaining on the 2024 Arizona schedule that is ranked below the Wildcats in the FPI. Despite being an underdog in every remaining game this season except Houston, the FPI projects Arizona to finish with a 5.7-6.3 record in their models.
Arizona has a 55.8 percent chance to finish with six wins and earn a bowl berth. Arizona has a two- game homestand coming up versus Colorado and West Virginia. Four of the final six 2024 Arizona games are at home. With better than a 40 percent chance to win the four home games, Arizona needs to go 3-1 to secure a bowl berth.
The FPI projections are not favorable for Arizona winning their remaining road games at Central Florida and TCU. There is a lot for Brent Brennan and his coaching staff to work on for the second half of the season. Arizona has a final bye remaining the week in between playing at Central Florida and hosting Houston in November.
Opponent | Date | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
Colorado | 10/19 | 41.2 |
West Virginia | 10/26 | 47.9 |
At Central Florida | 11/2 | 31.0 |
Houston | 11/15 | 71.3 |
At TCU | 11/23 | 35.9 |
Arizona State | 11/30 | 45.1 |
Arizona began the 2023 season 3-3 before winning its final seven games of the season. The streak was extended to nine games after winning the first two games of the 2024 season. That was the longest winning streak among Football Bowl Subdivision teams at the time.
The seven game winning streak in 2023 included wins over five ranked teams. That included three in a row and four in five weeks in the middle of the season. None of the teams remaining on the 2024 Arizona schedule are ranked. Arizona State who is 5-1 and Colorado at 4-2 are the only remaining teams Arizona plays with winning records.
Central Florida, TCU and West Virginia are all 3-3 and Houston is 2-4. Arizona has the 48th-ranked strength of schedule and 68th remaining strength of schedule this season per the FPI. The opportunity is there for Arizona to close the season strong and qualify for a bowl game.
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