The ESPN Football Power Index projections for Arizona to win have increased significantly in four of its five remaining 2025 regular-season games. At Cincinnati on November 15 is the only remaining 2025 Arizona regular season game, the Wildcats have a decreased chance to win per the ESPN FPI.
Arizona has a 57.9 percent chance of winning at Colorado on Saturday. That is improved from 50.1 percent after week nine. The projected chance for Arizona to win at Colorado improved 15.5 percent from last week. Colorado lost 53-7 at Utah on Saturday. Arizona had its second bye in week 10.
Arizona returns home to host Kansas on November 8. The ESPN FPI projects Arizona with a 58.8 percent chance to defeat Kansas. Arizona was projected with a 49.8 percent chance to beat Kansas after week nine. That is an improvement of 18.0 percent from last week.
Cincinnati is the most difficult projected remaining game on the Arizona schedule by 19.8 percentage points. Arizona has a 24.6 percent chance of winning at Cincinnati. That is up from 26.1 percent last week. Cincinnati is the only remaining game the ESPN FPI projects Arizona as a significant underdog.
Date | Opponent | Record | Chance to win | Previous Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
11/1 | At Colorado | 3-4 | 57.9 | 50.1 |
11/8 | Kansas | 4-3 | 58.8 | 49.8 |
11/15 | At Cincinnati | 6-1 | 24.6 | 26.1 |
11/22 | Baylor | 4-3 | 61.9 | 56.4 |
11/29 | At Arizona State | 5-2 | 42.4 | 38.2 |
Arizona has a 61.9 percent chance of defeating Baylor on Senior Day. That is up from 56.4 percent from last week. That is a 9.8 percent chance from last week. Arizona is projected by the ESPN FPI to have its best chance to win a remaining game this season against Baylor.
Arizona has a 42.4 percent chance to defeat Arizona State in the final remaining 2025 regular season game. That is up from 38.2 percent last week. Arizona has an 11.0 percent better chance to win at Arizona State in the updated ESPN FPI Projections than it did last week.
The ESPN FPI projects Arizona to finish with 6.5 wins and 5.5 losses in its simulations. If Arizona performs how the FPI projects over its final five games, it would finish with seven wins and five losses. Arizona needs two wins in its last five regular-season games to become bowl eligible.