Arizona is the new top projected overall seed in the updated ESPN Bracketology posted on Tuesday. Michigan, the previous top overall seed, lost to Wisconsin on Saturday. Arizona improved to 16-0 after a win at TCU on Saturday.
Lunardi wrote extensively about Arizona in the updated ESPN Bracketology on Tuesday. Lunardi pointed out that Arizona has averaged 28 wins in four seasons under Tommy Lloyd, never been worse than a four seed and only once failed to reach the NCAA Tournament Regional Semifinal.
Losses as a one seed to fifth-seeded Houston and as a two seed in 2024 to sixth-seeded Clemson in the NCAA Tournament Regional Semifinals had Lunardi ask about "Why does it feel like they have yet to get over the hump?" Lunardi stated that the first-round loss as a two-seed to 15th-seed Princeton in 2025 is a part of that.
Lunardi concluded that Arizona playing their best in the months preceding March is most of the perception that they have not gotten over the hump. There is no ignoring Arizona as the best team nationally per Lunardi.
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) January 13, 2026
Lunardi concluded his summary of Arizona by mentioning the five quadrant one wins Arizona has in the NCAA NetRatings and that those are all away from home. Against a tough Big XII schedule, Lunardi mentioned Arizona could triple its Quad one wins by Selection Sunday.
Lunardi projects Arizona to play 16th-seeded Dartmouth, who would be in the NCAA Tournament as the Ivy League Champion. The winner between Arizona and Dartmouth would match up with eighth seed Auburn and ninth-seeded St. Mary's. Arizona beat Auburn in December and St. Mary's in an October exhibition.
The other top seeds in the West Region, as projected by Lunardi, are second-seed Gonzaga, third-seeded Illinois and fourth-seed Florida. Lunardi projects Louisville as the fifth seed in the West. Seven Big XII teams are projected to earn NCAA Tournament berths by Lunardi.