Arizona moved up two spots to 77th in the ESPN Football Index rankings for week 12. The Wildcats are still the lowest-ranked Big XII team in the FPI. Arizona improved its projections of winning versus Houston and Arizona State in the FPI, but their chance of beating TCU went down following this weekend's outcomes.
Houston also moved up two spots to 74th, TCU moved up nine places in the FPI to 40th and Arizona State is 37th after being 36th last week. The FPI projects Arizona with a 3.3 percent chance to win out and qualify for a bowl game. Arizona has the 44th best strength of schedule nationally and 55th 55th-toughest remaining SOS.
The FPI efficiencies rank Arizona 92nd overall, 80th on offense, 93rd on defense and 89th on special teams. Arizona is 107th nationally averaging 22.1 points per game and 84th producing 374.4 yards per game. The Wildcats are 104th allowing 31.1 PPG and 94th with opponents averaging 393.0 total yards per game.
The fall from the 21st-ranked team nationally in the preseason Associated Press Top 25 and Coaches Polls has been a team effort. Multiple areas for Arizona have failed them in 2024. The opportunity to finish the season strong and earn a bowl berth with three consecutive wins is still in front of them.
Date | Opponent | Chance to win 11/3 | Chance to win |
|---|---|---|---|
11/15 | Houston | 56.6 percent | 57.2 percent |
11/23 | at TCU | 21.4 percent | 18.3 percent |
11/30 | Arizona State | 29.4 percent | 29.6 percent |
Arizona showed signs of fracture early in the season. New Mexico had 471 total yards in a 61-39 loss to Arizona in the season opener. A week later Arizona had 361 total yards, scored only two touchdowns and did not put the game away until the fourth quarter in a 22-10 win over FCS Northern Arizona.
Kansas State dominated Arizona in a 31-7 win in week three. After a bye week, Arizona regained momentum with a 23-10 win at then number 10 Utah. That was the last Arizona win. A current five-game losing streak by an average of 20.8 PPG followed the win at Utah.
Arizona needs to beat Houston and perform well against TCU and ASU in their final two games to generate momentum going into the off-season. The 2025 Arizona class is ranked 39th nationally and fourth in the Big XII, marking the first full cycle for head coach Brent Brennan and his staff.