Arizona moved up six spots and caused Houston to fall eight in the ESPN Football Power Index with a 27-3 win over the Cougars in Tucson on Friday night. The Arizona win brought the Wildcats out of being the worst team in the Big XII as they changed places in the conference FPI rankings.
The chance for Arizona to win on Saturday at TCU increased, but they dropped in the final game versus Arizona State. Arizona has to win out to become bowl-eligible. When Arizona began the season ranked 21st nationally, the thought of being 4-6 was unthinkable.
The FPI projects Arizona with 4.5 wins and 7.5 losses in their model. Arizona has a 6.9 percent chance to win out per the FPI. Arizona has the 59th toughest strength of schedule this season and the 45th most difficult remaining SOS per the FPI. Only five teams in the Big XII have an easier 2024 schedule than Arizona.
Five Big XII teams have an easier remaining schedule than Arizona. The Wildcats are 85th in-game control and 106th in Average In-Game Win Probability. Arizona is 81st in offensive efficiency and 79th in defensive efficiency and special teams. The 4-6 2024 record is nearly evenly attributable to all three Arizona units.
Date | Opponent | Chance to win | Chance to win now |
|---|---|---|---|
11/23 | at TCU | 18.3 percent | 21.5 percent |
11/30 | Arizona State | 29.6 percent | 29.3 percent |
In the more traditional rankings, Arizona is 105th nationally averaging 22.6 points per game and 92nd allowing 28.3. Arizona is 85th nationally averaging 371.0 total yards per game and 87th with opponents averaging 386.3 YPG. Arizona is 98th nationally being outscored by 7.7 PPG.
Arizona has been outscored by 21.3 PPG in losses. The Wildcats have outscored opponents by 17.75 PPG in wins. The win over Houston was the biggest margin for Arizona in a 2024 win. Arizona losses to Texas A&M and West Virginia were by a combined 11 points. Those games loom large as Arizona hopes to become bowl-eligible.