The 71-65 Duke win over Siena in the first-round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament on Thursday dropped the odds for the Blue Devils to win the national championship. Arizona and Michigan benefitted with improved odds after Duke had to outscore Siena 39-22 in the second half to advance.
Arizona is the favorite to win the 2026 NCAA Tournament in the updated FanDuel Sportbook odds at +330. Michigan is the second favorite at +410 and Duke is +500. Duke originally had the best odds to reach the National Championship Game, but is now third at +230 behind Arizona at +175 and Michigan at +210.
Arizona also has the best odds to reach the Final Four at -140 with Michigan second at -115 and Duke is third at +105. Florida is +800 to win the 2026 National Championship, +360 to reach the National Championship Game and +175 to make the Final Four.
Michigan, the top seed in the Midwest Region, advanced with a 101-80 victory over Howard on Thursday. Arizona plays Long Island and Florida faces Prairie View as they open play in the NCAA Tournament on Friday.
Duke is the 16th No.1 seed to defeat a No.16 seed by 9 or fewer points...
— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) March 19, 2026
None of those teams have ever won the National Championship 😬
(via @statsbywill) pic.twitter.com/iDa6fHeuZl
Big Dropoff After the Favorites
After Florida, the dropoff in odds to the fifth team to win the National Championship is Connecticut at +2700. The Huskies are also fifth at +1100 to advance to the National Championship Game. The fifth favorite to advance to the Final Four is Iowa State at +220.
Connecticut is the second seed in the East behind Duke and Iowa State is the second seed in the Midwest. Duke is the first overall seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. The odds are likely to shift again after the conclusion of the Arizona game on Friday afternoon and Florida at night.
With gamblers now able to place bets in real time, the odds are likely to be more volatile. Neither Duke nor Michigan came close to covering the point spread on Thursday. How Arizona and Florida perform against the spread will be a barometer to watch on Friday.