Arizona national metrics rankings entering Big XII play

Using the ESPN Basketball Power Index, Evan Miya, KenPom and NCAA Net Ratings, Arizona is still in a strong position to earn an NCAA Tournament berth as Big XII play commences on Monday night versus TCU at McKale Center. Arizona enters the game versus TCU 0-5 versus Power Conference teams this season.

Playing in the Big XII will provide Arizona with an opportunity in nearly every game to improve its metrics rankings. Arizona will be challenged far more than they have been during recent seasons in the Pac-12. At the end of the season, Arizona's record won't be as good as it has been playing in the Pac-12.

The ESPN BPI, Evan Miya, Ken Pom and Net Ratings all have different ways of measuring success, resulting in Arizona being ranked in different spots in the various rankings. The NCAA Netratings is the primary metric used by the NCAA Tournament committee and replaced the old Ratings Percentage Index.

The NCAA Tournament committee looks favorably at teams who play a challenging schedule. By any metric, Arizona has one of the toughest non-conference schedules. Entering the Big XII this season will elevate Arizona's schedule for the entire season. The ESPN BPI ranks Arizona with the 40th toughest SOS and KemPom has them 52nd.

Overall Arizona is ranked seventh in the BPI, 18th by Evan Miya, 24th in KenPom and 26th in the NCAA Net Ratings. The numbers and metric categories vary. The BPI projects Arizona to finish with 19.5 wins and 11.5 losses overall with 13.5 wins and 6.5 losses in Big XII play based on their simulations.

The BPI simulations give Arizona a 3.6 percent chance to win the National Championship, 7.9 percent to make the title game,17.2 percent for a Final Four run, 33.5 percent to make the Elite Eight, 59.9 percent for the Sweet 16 and 91.7 percent chance to win its first-round NCAA Tournament game.

The key to Arizona in Big XII play will be accumulating quadrant one wins in the NCAA Net Ratings. Arizona is currently 0-5 versus Quad One. TCU is a quad two game for Arizona and could fall to quad three after the game on Monday night. Arizona has a pair of quad-one opportunities next week,

Cincinnati hosts Arizona on Saturday, followed by a game at Arizona on January 7. Both of those games are quad-one opportunities. West Virginia defeated Arizona 83-76 in overtime in the Battle 4 Atlantis third place game in the Bahamas. Arizona gets a second opportunity versus West Virginia in Morgantown.

Arizona will return home after playing at West Virginia to host Central Florida and Baylor. Baylor is another quad-one opportunity. Other key games the remainder of the season are at Baylor in February, two contests versus Iowa State, Houston and at Kansas on March 8 to finish the regular season.