Arizona has completely new projected opponents for the first two rounds of the 2026 NCAA Tournament in the first bracketology of February, updated by Joe Lunardi of ESPN on Tuesday. As expected, Arizona remains the projected top overall seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Lunardi projects Arizona to play Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference leader Merrimack in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Merrimack has 14 wins and nine losses overall and leads the MAAC with 10 wins and two losses. Merrimack is 212th in the ESPN Basketball Power Index.
Lunardi projects Iowa as the eighth seed and SMU ninth in the same pod as Arizona and Merrimack. SMU was dropped two seed lines by Lunardi after an 88-74 loss at Louisville on Saturday. Iowa and SMU have both been as high as a sixth seed in ESPN Bracketology this season.
On the same half of the West Regional bracket as Arizona is Vanderbilt as the fourth seed and St. John's fifth as the highest projected teams that the Wildcats would play in the semifinals if they win their first two games. St. John's and Vanderbilt were the projected fourth and fifth seeds in the West last week.
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 3, 2026
The other half of the West Regional bracket
Lunardi projects Gonzaga as the second seed and Michigan State third in the other half of the West Regional bracket. Louisville is sixth and Auburn seventh in the West as potential projected second-round matchups for Michigan State and Gonzaga.
Connecticut, Duke and Michigan are holding steady as the other three projected number one seeds. Lunardi does not project any other Big XII teams in the West Regional. Arizona is projected to play the first round at Viejas Arena in San Diego. The West Regional Semifinals and Final will be played at the SAP Center in San Jose.