The updated Bracketology by Joe Lunardi of ESPN projects a new set of teams for Arizona. Arizona remains the top seed in the West Region to be played in San Jose. Michigan continues to be the top overall seed in the Bracketology posted by Lunardi on Tuesday.
Lunardi projects Arizona to have a rematch with Utah Tech in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in the first Bracketology of 2026. Arizona beat Utah Tech 93-67 on November 7. Lunardi continues to project Arizona to be assigned to the West Subregional in San Diego.
Eight-seeded USC and ninth-seed St. John's are projected to play the winner of Arizona and Utah Tech in the second round. USC is 12-3 overall and 1-3 in the Big 10. The Trojans lost by a combined 59 points in losses at Michigan and Michigan State in their two most recent games.
St. John's has been one of the most disappointing teams in College Basketball halfway through the 2025-26 season. The Red Storm are 9-5, 2-1 in the Big East. St. John's has been on a downward Bracketology trend for the last few weeks.
Happy New Year! pic.twitter.com/AUFFXhLcZD
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) January 6, 2026
West Regional macro view
In the Arizona half of the West Regional, Lunardi has Arkansas as the fourth seed and Louisville as the fifth. That would set up a potential second-round matchup between John Calipari against Louisville. Calipari is 20-8 in his career against Louisville.
Baylor, as an 11 seed playing in the First Four against Oklahoma, is the only other Big XII team projected to play in the West Regional by Lunardi. Gonzaga is the projected second seed in the West Regional and Nebraska third by Lunardi.
Michigan is the projected number one seed in the Midwest Regional that will be played in Chicago. Iowa State is the projected top seed in the South in Houston and Connecticut is projected as the number one seed in the East to be played in Washington D.C.
Other teams of note to Arizona are Big XII Texas Tech as the fourth seed and Central Florida eighth in the Midwest Region, BYU as the third seed in the South and Kansas as the fifth seed in the East. Lunardi projects eight Big XII teams in the 2026 NCAA Tournament field.
Among the non-conference opponents Arizona played, Lunardi has Florida as the sixth seed in the South, Alabama as the sixth seed, UCLA eighth and Auburn ninth in the East. Arizona has the 49th strength of schedule and 49th remaining SOS per the ESPN Basketball Power Index.