ESPN College Basketball analyst Sean Farnham picked Arizona to reach the Final Four during the the network's bracketology special on Sunday night. Farnham stated Arizona is playing better together as a team now and their experience playing Duke early in the season will benefit them.
Arizona finished the season 33rd nationally averaging 16.8 assists per game. Jaden Bradley leads Arizona averaging 3.7 assists. The Wildcats share the ball as a team. Arizona has been inconsistent defensively and was at its peak when they won 13 out of 14 games in midseason.
Farnham primarily focused on how Arizona matches up with Duke. Arizona plays Akron in the NCAA Tournament first round and would play the winner of Liberty and Oregon if they defeat the Zips. Akron matches up well with Arizona in some of the points made by Farnham.
Akron is fourth nationally averaging 18.1 APG led by Tavari Johnson who posts 3.9 per game. The Zips are 39th nationally averaging 39.0 rebounds per game. Akron will be tested on the boards by Arizona. James Akonkwo who is 6'8 and 230 pounds leads Akron averaging 7.3 rebounds per game and contributes 7.0 points per game.
"They've experienced Duke and that was when Arizona was selfish. That's when they were playing a lot of one-on-one basketball. They were 4-5, they were awful. Tommy Lloyd used that to show them how they're playing...then versus what they're doing now...They're sharing the ball a lot better and the physicality that they showed against Houston was impressive even without J'wan Roberts. To hold Houston to zero points off of turnovers in the first 20 minutes, zero second chance points in that game. Henri Veessaar is a big reason why...they could beat Duke in the Sweet 16...Caleb Love is...the guy he's supposed to be he's not turning it over he's not taking wild shots."Sean Farnham, ESPN
Arizona outrebounded Houston 31-24 the first time they played this season and the teams each had 35 rebounded on Saturday. Duke had a 43-30 rebounding edge versus Arizona in November. Arizona has to be able to control the boards versus Akron. This is not an exceptionally big Arizona team with Veesaar the only rotation player over 6'8.
Houston had no points off turnovers in the first half but outscored Arizona 15-2 in points off turnovers in the second half. Arizona actually outscored Houston 9-4 in second-chance points. Arizona and Akron are nearly even in fastbreak points per game which are frequently scored off of turnovers.
Arizona is 23rd nationally averaging 14.03 fastbreak points per game and Akron is 29th posting 13.47 per contest. In offensive rebounds that lead to second-chance points, Arizona is 46th averaging 10.5 per game and Akron is 69th bringing down 10.0 per game. Those secondary stats are often the difference between and losing.
Arizona could potentially play Oregon in the Round of 32, Duke/Baylor in the Sweet 16 and Wisconsin in the Elite Eight.
— Justin Spears (@JustinESports) March 16, 2025
Here we go…
Duke is 23nd nationally averaging 16.8 APG and 129th averaging 11.2 ORPG. Arizona was outscored 14-8 in second chance points and 12-6 in fastbreak points by Duke. Arizona prides itself on being in outrebounding opponents and wants to run. Those have to be components to win throughout the NCAA Tournament.
Veesaar could have a bad matchup versus a smaller Akron team. Freshman forward Carter Bryant at 6'8 with excellent athleticism and the ability to shoot the three is a player to watch versus Akron. Bryant could have a big game if Lloyd chooses to play a smaller lineup.
All of the points Farnham examines are useful when filling out brackets. Matchups matter in the NCAA Tournament. Coaches will attempt to exploit opponents' weaknesses. Those are often more subtle than traditional stats. Arizona and Akron should be high scoring and some of the tertiary stats could determine the outcome.