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ESPN Football Power Index projections for final four Arizona 2024 games

The projections by the ESPN Football Power Index have not changed much for Arizona for their four remaining 2024 games.

By Alan Rubenstein

Oct 26, 2024; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan (4) celebrates touchdown during the fourth quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images
Oct 26, 2024; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan (4) celebrates touchdown during the fourth quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images / Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images
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The ESPN Football Power Index projects Arizona to win only one of their remaining four 2024 games following the 31-26 loss to West Virginia on Saturday. Arizona is projected to lose to Central Florida on Saturday, beat Houston on November 15 and be defeated by TCU and Arizona State to close the season.

Arizona has a 25.3 percent chance to beat Central Florida, 67.7 percent versus Houston, 27.3 percent versus TCU and 43.3 percent to beat ASU. Arizona needs wins in three of its four remaining games to qualify for a bowl game. The FPI projects Arizona to finish with 4.6 wins and 7.4 losses in the simulations.

Arizona remained 70th in the FPI after the loss to West Virginia. Arizona has the 54th toughest 2024 strength of schedule and has the 68th most difficult remaining schedule per the FPI. The FPI has Arizona with the 93rd strength of record which measures how other teams would perform versus other programs' schedules.

Arizona is 100th nationally averaging 23.4 points per game and is 91st allowing 28.1 PPG. The Wildcats are 71st averaging 389.0 total yards per game and 69th allowing 367.3 total yards per game. Arizona is scoring less and allowing more points per game than where they rank in total yards and yards allowed.

Opponent

Date

Chance of winning

At Central Florida

11/2

25.3

Houston

11/15

67.7

At TCU

11/23

27.3

Arizona State

11/30

42.3

Turnovers have been a major factor. Arizona is minus five in turnovers through eight games. Arizona is 104th nationally in turnover margin. A Quali Conley fumble on the first Arizona drive versus West Virginia changed the course of the game. Conley fumbled on the West Virginia 19-yard line with Arizona trailing 3-0.

The Conley fumble was the only turnover for both teams. West Virginia drove 81 yards to extend their lead. Arizona had to play from behind the entire game instead of potentially tying the game or taking the lead on their opening drive. The loss of three defensive starters has also had a big impact on how Arizona is playing.

Central Florida and Houston are struggling equally with Arizona. The Knights bring a five-game losing streak into their annual space game and the Wildcats have lost four in a row. Arizona and West Virginia both entered their game on Saturday with two-game losing streaks. Arizona still has an opportunity to close the season strong.

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