The ESPN Football Power Index projection for Arizona to beat Colorado, Kansas and Baylor improved despite the 31-28 loss at Houston on Saturday Arizona has a better than 50 percent chance to win on November 1 at Colorado and versus Baylor on November 22.
Arizona needs two more wins to reach six 2025 victories and become bowl eligible. The ESPN FPI projects Arizona with a 50.1 percent to win at Colorado after the Wildcats have a bye this week and 56.4 percent versus Baylor at home.
Arizona has a 49.8 percent chance to beat Kansas on November 8 which is up slightly from 49.8 percent last week. In games at Cincinnati November 8 (26.1 percent chance to win) and Arizona State on November 29 (38.2), Arizona is a significant underdog.
The projections for the chance of an Arizona win at Cincinnati and Arizona State fell from last week in the ESPN FPI. Arizona had a 28.6 percent chance to win at Cincinnati in the projections last week and 40.9 percent at Arizona State.
Date | Opponent | Record | Chance to win | Previous Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
11/1 | At Colorado | 3-4 | 50.1 | 49.8 |
11/8 | Kansas | 4-3 | 49.8 | 49.3 |
11/15 | At Cincinnati | 6-1 | 26.1 | 28.6 |
11/22 | Baylor | 4-3 | 56.4 | 56.0 |
11/29 | At Arizona State | 5-2 | 38.2 | 40.9 |
Colorado is the only remaining team on the 2025 Arizona schedule with a losing record. The Buffaloes had a week eight bye. Utah hosts Colorado on Saturday night. Cincinnati is the Big XII Co-leader with BYU at 4-0 in the conference. BYU is at Cincinnati in the penultimate game of the 2025 regular season.
Arizona State does not play BYU or Cincinnati during the 2025 regular season. Arizona State, Houston and Texas Tech are tied for third in the Big XII with 3-1 records. Everyone else in the Big XII has between two and four conference losses.
Arizona State, BYU, Colorado and Iowa State finished in a four-way tie with 7-2 records in the Big XII in 2024. That's unlikely to happen again. With three losses, Arizona is playing for a bowl berth at this point in the season. Arizona could have a chance to eliminate ASU from a Big XII title berth in the final regular season game.