Game should be decided by Arizona offense versus BYU defense

The key to Arizona beating BYU on Saturday will be offensive consistency. BYU has one of the best defenses in the Big XII. The matchup between the Arizona offense and the BYU defense could decide the game. Arizona improved offensively versus Texas Tech after three mediocre games but needs finish drives with touchdowns, not field goals.

Arizona enters week seven ninth in the Big XII averaging 418.4 total yards per game. The inability to convert drives into touchdowns hindered Arizona versus Texas Tech. Arizona is 15th in the Big XII averaging 27.0 points per game.

Arizona is 10th in the Big XII averaging 146.20 rushing yards per game. The Wildcats are fourth in the Big XII averaging 5.46 yards per carry. Arizona has to committ more to the run versus BYU. Arizona has the sixth ranked pass offense in the Big XII averaging 272.2 yards per game.

BYU is third in the Big XII allowing 15.8 PPG and allowing 292.6 total yards per game. BYU has the fifth-best run defense in the Big XII allowing 121.60 rushing YPG, fifth with opponents averaging 3.68 YPC, fourth in pass defense permitting 171.0 YPG and second holding opponents to 5.0 yards per pass attempt.

After three consecutive games under 400 total yards, Arizona had 422 versus Texas Tech in a 28-22 loss last week. Six Arizona drives ended in points versus Texas Tech and another was a missed field goal attempt. Ten Arizona drives ended on the Texas Tech side of the field.

If Arizona is able to get in BYU territory on Saturday they have to consistently finish drives with touchdowns. Arizona is 106th nationally at 50 percent with only six TDs in 12 red zone trips. BYU is 17th with a 42.86 percent red zone conversion rate with six TDs in 14 trips.

Both of those numbers need to change for Arizona on Saturday. Arizona needs to commit more to the run and create big plays to take the crowd out of the game. Tetairoa McMillan has not had a TD since the season opening 61-39 win over New Mexico. Arizona has to get McMillan in the end zone while creating opportunities for other players.

Tight end Keyan Burnett has had five receptions in each of the past two games. After holding its first four opponents under 150 yards passing, BYU allowed 324 and three TDs versus Baylor last week. Baylor only had 63 yards rushing. Baylor gave Arizona a blueprint on how to beat BYU through the air.

Kansas State ran for 228 yards versus BYU but lost 38-9. Teams have shown the ability how to attack the BYU defense. Arizona needs offensive balance versus BYU. The crowd will be amped up early with the Big Noon Kickoff pregame show in Provo. Early offensive success is critical for Arizona.