Arizona has a 57.9 percent chance of defeating Colorado per the ESPN Football Power Index simulations. The Wildcats have a higher rating in every ESPN FPI metric measuring the performance of a team, except special teams.
The ESPN FPI and SP+ are both predictive measures of how a team performs going forward. Arizona is higher rated than Colorado in offense, defense and special teams in the SP+ metrics. With Arizona and Colorado both ranking low in special teams metrics, that could be an area of the game to watch on Saturday.
Arizona is 50th overall in the ESPN FPI, 51st in strength of record, has played the 58th toughest schedule and has the 58th most difficult remaining schedule. Cincinnati, 26th in the FPI, is nearly 20 spots ahead of Arizona State as the toughest remaining 2025 Arizona regular-season opponent.
Colorado is 59th overall in the ESPN FPI, 76th in strength of record, 76th in strength of schedule and has the 25th most difficult remaining SOS. After Arizona, Colorado plays at West Virginia and has a bye week, before finishing the regular season versus Arizona State and at Kansas State.
Metric | Arizona | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
FPI Ranking | 50 | 59 |
Strength of Record | 51 | 76 |
Strength of Schedule | 58 | 25 |
Remaining SOS | 52 | 61 |
Overall Efficiency Ranking | 41 | 61 |
Offensive Efficiency Ranking | 29 | 46 |
Defensive Efficiency | 45 | 77 |
Special Teams Efficiency | 128 | 97 |
SP+ Overall | 43 | 68 |
SP+ Offense | 45 | 65 |
SP+ Defense | 43 | 72 |
SP+ Special Teams | 98 | 118 |
Arizona is 41st in overall efficiency, 29th in offensive efficiency, 45th in defensive efficiency and 128th in special teams efficiency in the FPI. The Bill Connelly SP+ formula has Arizona 43rd overall, 45th in offense, 43rd in defense and 98th in special teams.
Colorado is 61st in overall efficiency, 46th in offense, 77th in defense and 97th in special teams in the ESPN FPI. The SP+ has Colorado, 68th overall, 65th in offense, 72nd in defense and 118 in special teams. Special teams are the only one that has a discrepancy of which team ranks higher in the ESPN FPI and SP+.
Arizona is an average of 17.25 spots higher in each measurement overall, offense, defense and special teams than Colorado. That includes being 31 spots lower in special teams in the ESPN FPI. Judging by the projections, Arizona should win easily. Playing on the road is always difficult, however.