Duke enters the NCAA Tournament Regional Semifinal as the top-ranked team in both polls, Evan Miya, the ESPN Basketball Power Index, KenPom and the NCAA NetRatings. Bart Torvik has Duke second in his ratings. Arizona varies from ninth through 13th nationally in the metric ratings above.
Duke is the highest-rated team Arizona will play this season, tied with Houston. The Cougars are the top-rated team in Bart Torvik. Arizona is 10th in Bart Torvik, 13th in Evan Miya, ninth in the ESPN BPI and KenPom and 12th in the NCAA Net Ratings. The sites have differing ways of rating the teams and stats available.
Arizona has the eighth toughest strength of schedule and is 16th in strength of record in the BPI. The Wildcats are 9-10 versus the BPI top 50. Arizona has a 24.0 percent chance to reach the Elite Eight, 12.6 percent to make the Final Four, 4.7 percent to advance to the Championship Game and 2.1 percent to win the title in the updated BPI.
Arizona is 11th in the BPI in offensive strength and 19th in defensive strength. Duke is first in offense and third in defense in the BPI. Duke is projected with a 76.0 percent chance to reach the Elite Eight, 58.9 percent to make the Final Four, 37.6 percent to advance to the title game and 26.8 to win the title.
Metric Site | Arizona National Rating | Duke National Rating |
|---|---|---|
Bart Torvik | 10 | 2 |
Evan Miya | 13 | 1 |
ESPN BPI | 9 | 1 |
Ken Pom | 13 | 1 |
NCAA Net Ratings | 12 | 1 |
Duke ranks first in Bart Torvik's adjusted offensive efficiency and fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency. Arizona is 11th in Adjoe and 26th in DJoe. Duke is in the top 10 in eight of the 20 Bart Torvik categories, while Arizona is in the top 10 in only ranking 10th overall.
Arizona is 12th in Evan Miya offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency. Duke is first offensively and third defensively in the Evan Miya ratings. One stat Evan Miya to watch is kill shots (10-0 or greater runs). Duke averages 1.03 KS per game and allows 0.19. Arizona averages 0.61 KSPG and allows 0.19.
Sweet 16 teams ranked by adjusted efficiency in the first two rounds (per Bart Torvik)
— WT - Lamont Enthusiast (@WildcatsTongue) March 24, 2025
1) Houston
2) Duke
3) Ole Miss
4) Kentucky
5) BYU
6) Purdue
7) Arkansas
8) Tennessee
9) Maryland
10) Arizona
11) Michigan
12) Florida
13) Alabama
14) Auburn
15) Texas Tech
16) Michigan State pic.twitter.com/opru4JQz90
Duke is first nationally in KenPom Adjoe and fourth in DJoe. Arizona is 13th in Adjoe and 28th in Djoe. One thing to watch from KenPom is the tempo of the game. Duke is 270th in adjusted tempo and Arizona is 49th. Arizona will have to be able to score in transition versus Duke.
Net Ratings provide insight into teams' opponents and where the games are played. Duke is 10-1 on the road this season, 4-2 in neutral site games, sixth in wins above bubble, 9-3 versus quadrant one opponents, 7-0 versus quad two, 10-0 versus quad three and 5-0 against quad four.
Arizona is 6-5 on the road, 3-4 in neutral site games, 16th in WAB, 10-11 versus quad one, 4-1 against quad two and 4-0 in games versus quad three and four. The NCAA Net Ratings numbers were all before the NCAA Tournament started.