Metrics are trending towards Hawaii, making the game closer than the 17.5 point-spread by the FanDuel Sportsbook. ESPN SP+ projects Arizona by 10.5 points over Hawaii and the Football Power Index has the Wildcats winning by 14.1 points.
Hawaii enters the game at Arizona after a 23-20 week zero win over Stanford. The Rainbows were a 1.5 point favorite over the Cardinal. The FPI gave Stanford a 71.3 percent chance to beat Hawaii entering their season-opening game. Arizona has an 87.1 percent chance to defeat Hawaii per the FPI.
Arizona enters their 2025 season opener ranked 67th nationally in the FPI. Hawaii moved up four spots to 108th nationally for the FPI. Arizona is 60th and Hawaii 108th in the post-spring SP+ ratings. By every metric measure, Arizona is a better team than Hawaii entering the 2025 season.
FanDuel has Arizona at -880 on the money line and Hawaii at +580. Hawaii is -108 at +17.5 points and Arizona is -112 at -17.5. Arizona was the worst power conference team in 2024 covering the point spread only twice in 12 games.
"Hawai'i at Arizona (10:30 p.m., TNT). In his first collegiate start last year, Micah Alejado threw for 469 yards for Hawai'i. In his second start last Saturday, he beat Stanford despite an ankle injury. Will the Legend of Alejado grow further in Tucson, or will Noah Fifita and an angry Arizona, coming off of a massively disappointing 2024 season, push the Warriors around?ESPN
SP+ projection: Arizona by 10.5 | FPI projection: Arizona by 14.1"
Arizona is an unknown with 27 incoming transfers to its 2025 roster. Arizona ranks fourth nationally with 26,465 snaps and is third with 403 starts with its transfers. Transfers need to make significant contributions for Arizona to be successful in 2025.
With one game played, Hawaii provided an idea of what to expect on Saturday. Quarterback Micah Alejado sets up everything for Hawaii. Alejado is listed as probable with an ankle injury that occurred against Stanford.