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Metrics show Arizona vs. Michigan is a generational NCAA Tournament game

Arizona versus Michigan is one of the most anticipated NCAA Tournament Games ever.
Nov 21, 2021; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Michigan Wolverines forward Terrance Williams II (5) blocks out Arizona Wildcats guard Dalen Terry (4) during a second half free throw attempt at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images
Nov 21, 2021; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Michigan Wolverines forward Terrance Williams II (5) blocks out Arizona Wildcats guard Dalen Terry (4) during a second half free throw attempt at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Arizona and Michigan are the third and fourth-best teams in the history of the KenPom metric. The KenPom thrill score for Arizona and Michigan in the NCAA Tournament National Semifinal on Saturday is 92.8, the highest in the history of the metric.

Michigan is first and Arizona is second in the KenPom, Bart Torvik and Evan Miya metrics that are updated entering the Final Four. Duke was first in the NetRatings and the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. Arizona and Michigan are both in the top 10 nationally offensively and defensively.

Michigan enters the Final Four fifth in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency and first in adjusted defensive efficiency. Arizona is fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency and second in adjusted deficiency. Duke and Florida are the only other teams in the top 10 in AdJoe and DJoe.

Arizona and Michigan have the prime time spot they deserve on Saturday night. Arizona won 71-67 at Connecticut in November and Michigan won 84-70 in February. Connecticut beat Illinois 74-61 in November in games among the 2026 Final Four teams.

How they have played in the NCAA Tournament

Arizona is averaging 89.5 points per game and allowing 69.0 in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan is averaging 95.25 points per game and allowing 72.72. Arizona has defeated 16th-seeded Long Island, ninth seed Utah State, fourth seeded Arkansas and second-seed Purdue to advance to the Final Four.

Michigan beat 16th-seeded Howard, ninth-seed Saint Louis, fourth-seeded Alabama and sixth-seed Tennessee to advance to the Final Four. Duke is the top team Michigan has played in 2025-26. In addition to Connecticut, Arizona also defeated two of the other three two-seeds, Houston and Iowa State, twice each.

Arizona playing Michigan is reminiscent of the first Final Four trip for the Wildcats in 1988. Arizona blitzed through the 1988 NCAA Tournament and entered the Final Four with 35 wins and two losses. Oklahoma entered the Final Four with a 33-3 record and beat Arizona 86–78 in the National Semifinal.

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