National CBB expert predicts Arizona's path for first 2 NCAA Tournament game

Grant Hughes of 247Sports projected the outcome for Arizona's first round NCAA Tournament game versus Akron and who their second round opponent will be.
Arizona guard Caleb Love puts up a shot for three as the Oregon Ducks host the Arizona Wildcats Saturday, Jan. 27, 2024 at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, Ore.
Arizona guard Caleb Love puts up a shot for three as the Oregon Ducks host the Arizona Wildcats Saturday, Jan. 27, 2024 at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, Ore. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

Using the Bart Torvik T-Rank, Grant Hughes of 247Sports projected the winner of every first-round NCAA Tournament game. As expected based on the seeds, the T-Rank expects Arizona to win comfortably in the first round. Oregon is the projected second-round opponent for Arizona after a close first-round win over Liberty.

Coaches often break down the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament into four-team mini-tournaments. With each two-game stretch in the NCAA Tournament, teams advance to the next site with wins. Arizona is the highest-seeded team as rated by Bart Torvik in their four-team pod.

Arizona is ninth, Akron 96th, Liberty 54th and Oregon 38th in the Bart Torvik T-Rank. Torvik lists 19 different metrics to measure each team. In the two metrics that are referred to the most, Arizona is 10th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 30th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Akron is 62nd in Adjoe and 182nd in Djoe. Liberty is 69th in Adjoe and 40th in Djoe. Oregon is 53rd in ADjoe and 36th in Djoe. Akron and Arizona should be a high scoring game with both teams far more efficient in the Bart Torvik metrics offensively. Liberty and Oregon should have a lower scoring game than Akron and Arizona.

"NO. 4 ARIZONA VS. NO. 13 AKRON

Torvik Pick: Arizona (89%) Score: 92-77

NO. 5 OREGON VS. NO. 12 LIBERTY

Torvik Pick: Oregon (57%) Score: 70-68"
Grant Hughes 247Sports

Outside of offensive and defensively efficiency, Arizona is 19th nationally in rebounding percentage led by Tobe Awaka and 15th in wins above bubble. Awaka is second nationally with a 19.1 rebounding percentage and 23rd with a 26.9 defensive rebounding percentage.

Akron's highest Bart Torvik rank is 30th nationally with a 50.4 percent effective field goal percentage. Effective field goal percentage combines overall attempts and three-point shots. The Zips struggle getting to the line ranking 332nd nationally with a free throw rate of 26.8.

The greatest strength for Oregon is being 16th nationally with a +5.3 in wins above bubble. Oregon is not particularly bad in anything with their three-point rate of 38.6 that is 176th nationally their lowest in Bart Torvik metrics. Liberty ranks in the top 10 in effective field goal percentage offense and defense and three-point offense and defense.

The biggest weakness for Liberty is ranking 361st nationally with an offensive rebounding number of 18.9 from Bart Torvik. Oregon has a 30.6 offensive rebounding number from Bart Torvik which is 159th nationally. Arizona is the favorite to advance out of the Seattle pod in the East Region.