The winner between Arizona State and Iowa State in the Big XII Championship Game will receive an automatic berth in the College Football Playoff as the likely 12th seed. A Boise State loss to UNLV in the Mountain West Championship could elevate the Big XII Champion to the fourth seed.
With every Big XII team with at least two losses and either ASU or Iowa State guaranteed a third loss, an at-large berth is almost guaranteed not to happen this year. If the Big XII Champion is the 12th seed as expected, they will be on the road in the first round at likely the Big 10 runner-up.
Oregon plays Penn State in Indianapolis to earn a bye in the first round of the CFP. Penn State beat Oregon 30 years ago in the Rose Bowl. The other Power Conference championship games this weekend are Clemson versus SMU in the ACC in Charlotte and Georgia versus Texas in the SEC in Atlanta.
While defenders will state parity in the Big XII in 2024, not receiving the fourth first-round bye is a bad look for the conference. Commissioner Brent Yormark and the Big XII will have to determine during the offseason how to get the conference stronger and in a position for their best team to receive a CFP bye.
Seed | Team | Record |
|---|---|---|
1 | Oregon | 12-0 |
2 | Texas | 11-1 |
3 | SMU | 11-1 |
4 | Boise State | 11-1 |
5 | Penn State | 11-1 |
6 | Notre Dame | 11-1 |
7 | Georgia | 10-2 |
8 | Ohio State | 10-2 |
9 | Indiana | 11-1 |
10 | Tennessee | 10-2 |
11 | Miami | 10-2 |
12 | Arizona State | 10-2 |
The biggest question for the CFP committee will be who earns the final at-large berth. Six of seven at-large berths appear to be locked up. Similar to College Basketball Conference Tournament Championship games, Clemson has an opportunity to be a bid stealer. SMU is in CFP whether or not they win the ACC Championship.
Clemson enters the ACC Championship with a 9-3 record. The only way for Clemson to earn a CFP berth is by winning the ACC Championship. That would push SMU into an at-large berth and eliminate any possiblity for Alabama, Miami, Mississippi, or South Carolina to have a legitimate chance at a CFP berth.
The Big 10 and SEC Championship game participants appear firmly in the CFP field whether or not they win on Saturday. Indiana, Ohio State and Tennessee have also almost definitely secured their at-large berths. That leaves one at-large berth open that will likely be between Alabama, Miami, Mississippi and South Carolina.