Arizona at Kansas State: final odds and predictions

Arizona is a 7.5-point underdog in its game at Kansas State on Friday night per the FanDuel odds. The number is consistent with Arizona being a two-score underdog with the odds after completing week two. Arizona and Kansas State each enter the game on Friday night with 2-0 records.

Arizona and Kansas State are both 0-2 versus the spread this season. Arizona won 61-39 as a 28-point favorite versus New Mexico and 22-10 as a 38.5 favorite versus Northern Arizona. Kansas State beat Tennessee-Martin 31-6 as a 37,5 point favorite and won 34-27 at Tulane as a 9.0-point favorite.

The Over/Under for Arizona at Kansas State is 60.5. Arizona and Kansas State have each had one game go over and the other under in their 2024 games. Arizona and New Mexico blasted the total of 60.5. Arizona and Northern Arizona were 32.5 points below the under of 64.5.

Kansas State and Tennessee-Martin were 10.5 points below the total of 57.5 as the Wildcats won 41-6. Kansas State beat Tulane 34-27 with a total of 46.5. The over is minus 115 and the under is minus 105. The biggest question will be how well the defenses play on Friday night.

New Mexico had 24 points and 305 yards in the first half versus Arizona. In the six quarters since halftime versus New Mexico, Arizona has allowed 364 yards and 25 points. If the Arizona defense plays like the last six quarters and not the first two this season, they can be successful versus Kansas State.

Kansas State has been one of the worst defenses nationally allowing long plays. The Wildcats rank below 100th in plays allowed longer than 20, 30 and 40 yards. Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita needs to connect with wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan for a few big plays in the passing game on Friday night.

Quarterback Avery Johnson and running back D.J. Giddens are the players to watch for Kansas State. Johnson has 334 yards passing with four touchdowns and one interception with 11 carries for 77 yards rushing. Giddens enters the game on Friday night with six consecutive 100-yard games.

Expect Arizona to stack the box and make Johnson beat them passing. If Arizona can get an early lead and make Kansas State play from behind, their chance of winning will increase significantly. Kansas State has not shown much ability passing, going below 200 yards in each game this season.

Predictions

Arizona should be able to keep it a one score game versus Kansas State. Take the 7.5 points and the visiting team. The 60.5 points seem high. Both offenses have had their own inconsistencies this season. Early in the year and with Arizona new to the Big XII, the pair of Wildcats will likely take their time figuring each other out.

The 60.5-point total is high. The under seems more likely. Expect Arizona to hit on some big plays through the passing game. Friday seems more destined for a score closer to 31-24 or 27-20 than the 60.5-point total. Friday is one of the biggest games in the Big XII in 2024, but not a conference game as it was scheduled before Arizona left the Pac-12.