Arizona has been abysmal versus the point spread this season
Arizona has started the season 2-1 but has not been as fortunate versus the spread. Arizona failed to cover as a favorite in wins versus New Mexico or Northern Arizona or in a loss at Kansas State. The Wildcats are on a bye this week. Arizona plays its first game after the bye at Utah on September 28.
Arizona won its season opener 61-39 over New Mexico as a 28-point favorite. Northern Arizona lost 22-10 to Arizona as a 38.5-point underdog. Kansas State beat Arizona 31-7 as a seven-point favorite last Friday. Arizona is favored in four of their last nine games per the ESPN Football Power Index.
Arizona is favored in the FPI versus Texas Tech, Colorado, West Virginia and Houston. In games at Utah, BYU Central Florida and TCU, Arizona is given no better than a 39.7 percent chance to win per the FPI. Arizona has a 49.9 percent chance to beat Arizona State. That number should change with the Sun Devils facing a tougher schedule.
After obliterating the 60.5-point over/under in the season opener, the last two games for Arizona have gone under. The Northern Arizona at Arizona game had an over/under of 64.5. Arizona at Kansas State came in significantly below the 61-point over/under. Arizona is setting a pattern for this season.
Opponent | Date | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
At Utah | 9/28 | 27.3 |
Texas Tech | 10/5 | 54.5 |
at BYU | 10/12 | 39.7 |
Colorado | 10/19 | 55.4 |
West Virginia | 10/26 | 57.9 |
At Central Florida | 11/2 | 17.2 |
Houston | 11/9 | 68.2 |
At TCU | 11/23 | 28.2 |
Arizona State | 11/30 | 49.9 |
Early consensus numbers project Utah as 9.5-point favorite over Arizona next Saturday. The outcome of Utah's game on Saturday at Oklahoma State will impact the spread of the Utes' game with the Wildcats. Oklahoma State and Utah will be one of the most critical games in the Big XII this season.
Arizona is fortunate their game at Kansas State was a non-conference game. Arizona and Kansas State scheduled the game before Big XII expansion. Because of the difficulty of replacing a non-conference game for both teams, Arizona and Kansas State decided to keep their game on the schedule but not count it in the Big XII standings.
Next. Arizona needs to develop more offensive depth. Arizona needs to develop more offensive depth. dark
Arizona returns home on October 5 to host Texas Tech. The Wildcats started 3-3 in 2024 before winning their last seven games. Five of those wins were over ranked teams. Arizona does not have as difficult of a schedule in 2024 as they did during their final season in the Pac-12 in 2023.