Arizona week five ESPN Football Power Index projections and ranking
Arizona fell five more spots to 62nd in the ESPN Football Power Rankings when several 2024 opponents suffered losses on Saturday. In the updated FPI projections, Arizona is only favored versus Houston on November 9 at home in their remaining nine games.
Arizona was favored in every home game except versus Arizona State and an underdog in every road game this season in the week four FPI. Arizona 2024 opponents Kansas State, Houston, TCU and Arizona State fell at least nine spots in the FPI following week four results.
A week after beating Arizona 31-7 last week, Kansas State lost 38-7 at BYU on Saturday night. Utah, who Arizona plays next, held on for an impressive 22-19 win at number 14 Oklahoma State. Arizona's 2024 opponents went 3-1 this weekend against teams the Wildcats do not play this season.
In addition to BYU and Kansas State, Texas Tech beat Arizona State 30-22 among games featuring two teams Arizona will play in 2024. Houston had the worst day with a 34-0 loss at Cincinnati. The Cougars fell 19 spots to 88th in the FPI. Arizona has five games with between a 46 and 49 projected chance to win.
Opponent | Date | Previous projection | Current projection |
|---|---|---|---|
At Utah | 9/28 | 27.3 | 22.8 |
Texas Tech | 10/5 | 54.5 | 46.3 |
at BYU | 10/12 | 39.7 | 25.0 |
Colorado | 10/19 | 55.4 | 49.1 |
West Virginia | 10/26 | 57.9 | 48.1 |
At Central Florida | 11/2 | 17.2 | 14.9 |
Houston | 11/9 | 68.2 | 73.0 |
At TCU | 11/23 | 28.2 | 29.1 |
Arizona State | 11/30 | 49.9 | 47.3 |
Winning the tossup games will be critical for Arizona to qualify for a bowl. Arizona needs to finish 4-5 in its final nine games to earn a bowl berth. Finishing with a .500 record would be significantly lower than the preseason projections after starting 2024 in the top 25 in both national polls.
Despite the game-by-game projections, the FPI projects Arizona with a 50.4 percent chance of getting to six wins. Arizona has the 79th-best strength of record (what other teams' record would be versus the same schedule), the 90th strength of schedule and the 47th remaining strength of schedule.
Utah is the second lowest chance Arizona has for a win on their remaining schedule after the Wildcats' game at Central Florida on November 2. The rest of the schedule is manageable. Arizona can certaintly get to six wins and will have an opportunity to exceed that.