Big XII tiebreaker rules could get complicated for Arizona

With only a September 28 trip to Utah for Arizona versus the top contenders in the Big XII in 2024, the conference tiebreakers could get complicated for the Wildcats. Arizona will also play at Kansas State on September 13, but that is classified as a non-conference game that won't count in the standings.

Arizona and Kansas State scheduled their early season meeting before 2024 Big XII expansion. None of the top seven teams in the Big XII as picked in the preseason media poll are on the Arizona 2024 schedule. The first tiebreaker to determine who will play in the Big XII championship game is head-to-head results.

The second tiebreaker is "tied teams will be compared based on win percentage against all common conference opponents." With a favorable schedule, the common opponents could work in Arizona's favor. The Wildcats should finish near their projection of fifth in the Big XII or higher.

The third tiebreaker is "The tied teams will be compared based on win percentage against the next highest-placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the Conference) proceeding through the standings."

Arizona should also benefit from the third tiebreaker. Unless one of Arizona's 2024 opponents exceeds their 2024 projections, Arizona should benefit from games versus the middle and lower-tier teams in the Big XII. After Utah, Arizona does not play a preseason top-25 team during the 2024 season.

"The tied teams will be compared based on combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents." Presumably, this is referencing common opponents' records in conference games. This is where Arizona would rely on the schedule of their opponents. But the favorable Arizona should help here too.

"The tied teams will be compared based on total number of wins in a 12-game season." Further down the list, the tiebreakers become more complicated. This will take into account the entire season. Houston and West Virginia are the only Big XII teams who started with a loss. How teams perform throughout the season will be impactful.

"The representative will be chosen based on highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team rating score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games." Who you play, how you perform against them and in every conceivable metric will have an impact on this tiebreaker. One blowout could impact a team in the tiebreaker.

"The representative will be chosen by a coin toss." Old fashioned chance. There is an extremely minimal chance the Big XII tiebreaker would come down to a coin toss. The likelihood is that as far as the tiebreakers would get is the SportSource Analytics tiebreaker.