How many wins Arizona will finish with per ESPN FPI
Arizona has dropped 34 spots in the ESPN Football Power Index since their season opening 61-39 win over New Mexico. The Wildcats fell 16 spots after a sluggish 22-10 win over Northern Arizona and and another 18 places following a 31-7 loss at Kansas State on Friday night.
Those losses have impacted the projections for Arizona for the remainder of the season, even though the Wildcats 2-1 record was expected after three games at the beginning of the season. How Arizona has played more than its outcomes has impacted the projections in the FPI.
After a bye week, Arizona will play at Utah on September 28. The Utes are the last team on the 2024 Arizona schedule that is currently in the national rankings. Arizona is fortunate to avoid Oklahoma State this season in the Big XII. Although Central Florida is not in the national polls, the Knights are 18th in the FPI.
Arizona is at UCF on November 2. The game in Orlando is the longest trip for Arizona this season. Being in the Big XII and traveling across multiple time zones is something Arizona has to adjust to in its new conference. Fortunately, the game at UCF is the only game Arizona has to travel across multiple time zones.
Opponent | Date | Chance of winning | FPI rank 9/17 |
|---|---|---|---|
At Utah | 9/28 | 27.3 | 24 |
Texas Tech | 10/5 | 54.5 | 53 |
at BYU | 10/12 | 39.7 | 56 |
Colorado | 10/19 | 55.4 | 54 |
West Virginia | 10/26 | 57.9 | 51 |
At Central Florida | 11/2 | 17.2 | 18 |
Houston | 11/9 | 68.2 | 69 |
At TCU | 11/23 | 28.2 | 31 |
Arizona State | 11/30 | 49.9 | 41 |
Arizona is projected to finish 6-6 by the FPI. Several games on the schedule are toss-ups. Arizona could easily finish 8-4 based on the schedule or 5-7. The FPI is projecting Utah, BYU, Central Florida and TCU nearly a two-thirds chance to win or better. That would be 7-5 for Arizona.
Arizona is projected as a strong favorite only over Houston who is 1-2. Texas Tech, Colorado, West Virginia and Arizona State are all basically toss-up games at home. Arizona has its most difficult games on the road at Utah, BYU, Central Florida and TCU.
Arizona tumbles out of both national polls. Arizona tumbles out of both national polls. dark. Next
Arizona will likely have to pull an upset on the road and win out at home to reach their 2023 record of 10-3. Finishing the season with a seven-game winning streak like they did in 2023 will be difficult. Arizona doesn't have the gauntlet schedule it did in 2023 when they finished 5-2 versus ranked teams.