Michigan beat Tennessee in the Midwest Regional Final in Chicago on Sunday to advance to the Final Four. It was the third consecutive loss by Tennessee in a Regional Final. In each of the two previous NCAA Tournaments, the team that eliminated Tennessee lost in the National Championship Game.
Purdue beat Tennessee 72-66 in the 2024 Midwest Regional Final before losing 75-60 to Connecticut in the National Championship Game. In 2025, Houston beat Tennessee 69-50 in the Midwest Regional Final before losing 65-63 to Florida in the National Championship Game.
After beating Tennessee in 2024, Purdue defeated North Carolina State 63-50 in the National Semifinal. Houston defeated Duke 70-67 in a memorable National Semifinal in a game that the Blue Devils lost a double-digit second-half lead. Houston then had their own collapse in the National Championship loss to Florida.
Houston, Michigan and Purdue were all number one seeds who defeated Tennessee. Tennessee was the second seed in the Midwest in the 2024 and 2025 NCAA Tournaments and a six seed in 2026. The Volunteers were an underdog in each of their Midwest Regional Final losses.
Sure enough, the KenPom Thrill Score is 92.8. Highest ever.
— Matthew Winick (@matthewwinick) March 29, 2026
The No. 3 vs. No. 4 KenPom teams of all-time.
Arizona/Michigan should be presented as the game of a generation. Will it live up to the hype?
(Funny enough, Michigan passed Zona in KenPom with today's win) https://t.co/4NigC7GSw2
The odds for Arizona versus Michigan are about even, with the Wolverines a consensus 1.5-point favorite. ESPN analytics project Michigan with a 51.9 percent chance to beat Arizona. Michigan is first in KenPom overall, and in adjusted defensive efficiency and fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Arizona is second in KenPom, fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency and second in adjusted defensive efficiency. Michigan is also first in Bart Torvik, fourth in AdJoe and third in AdJde. Arizona is second in Bart Torvik, seventh in AdJoe ad first in AdJde.
Arizona versus Michigan is one of the most anticipated Final Four games in many years. The Wildcats and Wolverines have been the two best teams for most of the 2025-26 season. The outcomes for Purdue and Houston do not indicate that past performance is not indicative of future results.