Arizona is 69th in the ESPN Football Power Index released on Tuesday, projected to have 4.9 wins and 7.1 losses, a 37.7 percent chance for six wins, a 0.5 percent chance to win the Big XII and reach the College Football Playoff. Houston is the only 2025 Arizona opponent ranked below Arizona in the ESPN FPI.
Arizona is a 12.5-point favorite over Hawaii in the season opener per the FanDuel Sportsbook. Arizona is -490 and Hawaii is +365 in the season opener. Hawaii is 102nd in the ESPN FPI, is projected to have 6.1 wins and only has a 0.3 percent chance to earn a College Football Playoff berth.
Arizona has the 65th toughest strength of schedule nationally, which is sixth in the Big XII. Arizona is set to get off to a 2-0 start with Hawaii and Weber State at home. The schedule gets significantly tougher with Kansas State in week three. The ESPN FPI does not list non-conference strength of schedule.
Arizona plays the five highest-ranked Big XII teams in the ESPN FPI. Arizona State, Baylor BYU, Kansas and Kansas State have a combined 64.6 percent chance to win the Big XII. Arizona probably has the toughest schedule against Big XII opponents, which is not listed separately.
Date | Opponent | Ranking | Projected wins | CFP Percent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
8/30 | Hawaii | 102 | 6.1 | 0.3 |
9/6 | Weber State | N/A | N/A | N/A |
9/12 | Kansas State | 21 | 8.6 | 22.2 |
9/27 | At Iowa State | 45 | 6.7 | 4.4 |
10/4 | Oklahoma State | 67 | 5.5 | 0.9 |
10/11 | BYU | 29 | 8.0 | 12.6 |
10/18 | At Houston | 75 | 4.7 | 0.2 |
11/1 | At Colorado | 49 | 6.5 | 3.1 |
11/8 | Kansas | 30 | 7.9 | 13.4 |
11/15 | At Cincinnati | 53 | 6.4 | 3.1 |
11/22 | Baylor | 33 | 7.2 | 12.5 |
11/28 | At Arizona State | 24 | 8.3 | 16.1 |
The Big XII is wide open in 2025. Kansas State is the favorite with a 19.9 percent chance to win the conference title. Kansas State at Arizona is not a conference game. Arizona and Kansas State scheduled their home-and-home series, which began in 2024 in Manhattan before Big XII expansion.
Nine of the 12 2025 Arizona opponents are projected by the ESPN FPI to become bowl eligible. Houston and Oklahoma State are the only 2025 Arizona Football Bowl Subdivision opponents not projected to win six games. Weber State plays in the Football Championship Subdivision.