Arizona cannot afford another first half in the National Semifinal against Michigan as it did in the West Regional Final when it trailed Purdue 38-31 at halftime. Michigan and Arizona both had halves outscoring their opponent 48-26 in a half in the regional finals.
Arizona rallied in the second half to outscore Purdue 48-26 in a 79-64 win. Michigan led Tennessee 48-26 at halftime in a 96-62 win in the Midwest Regional Final. The Wolverines are first nationally, outscoring opponents by 18.1 points per game versus Division I opponents.
The Wildcats are fifth nationally, outscoring opponents by 17.7 PPG. Michigan is second nationally, averaging 43.9 PPG in the first half and 128th, permitting 34.0 PPG in the opening 20 minutes. Arizona is seventh, averaging 42.0 PPG in the first half and 82nd, permitting 33.0 PPG in the opening 20 minutes.
Michigan was not as dominant in its first three NCAA Tournament games in the first half as it was against Tennessee. Michigan led 16th seed Howard 50-46 at halftime in the first round, St. Louis 48-39 in the second round and trailed Alabama 49-47 at the break in the Midwest Regional Semifinal.
Michigan vs. Arizona in the Final Four is a matchup between the third and fourth-highest KenPom ratings ever.
— Brandon Koretz (@BrandonKoretz) March 31, 2026
1. 1999 Duke (+43.01)
2. 2025 Duke (+39.29)
3. 2026 Michigan (+39.02)
4. 2026 Arizona (+38.76)
5. 2001 Duke (+37.32)
One of the biggest college basketball games ever.
Second half dominance
Arizona is 14th, averaging 44.3 PPG in the second half and 35th, allowing 35.5 after halftime. Michigan is 23rd nationally, scoring 43.7 second-half points and 28th, permitting 35.4 PPG after halftime. Arizona led Long Island 53-29 at halftime, Utah State 33-24 and Arkansas 54-43.
Arizona needs to begin the game with a sense of urgency. The game against Purdue began with Arizona leading 19-12. Purdue outscored Arizona 26-12 in the remainder of the first half. The Boilermakers maintained a seven-point lead at 42-35 with 17:23 left before Arizona outscored Purdue 44-22 in the rest of the game.
Playing similarly against Michigan as Arizona did against Purdue for the first 22:37 could put the Wildcats into a far bigger deficit than seven points. Purdue was only the fifth opponent to lead Arizona at halftime in 2025-26. Arizona is 5-0 when trailing at halftime. A strong first half is essential for Arizona versus Michigan.