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Arizona fans should already know what team Wildcats would rather face in championship

Arizona would have a slight advantage over one opponent versus the other if they beat Michigan on Saturday and advance to the National Championship Game on Monday.
ByAlan Rubenstein|
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Mar 28, 2026; San Jose, CA, USA; The Arizona Wildcats celebrate with the West Regional Championship trophy after an Elite Eight game against the Purdue Boilermakers of the West Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at SAP Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images
Mar 28, 2026; San Jose, CA, USA; The Arizona Wildcats celebrate with the West Regional Championship trophy after an Elite Eight game against the Purdue Boilermakers of the West Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at SAP Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images | Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Per FanDuel Sportsbook, Arizona would be a 5.5-point favorite over Connecticut an 4.5 over Illinois in the National Championship Game if they advance past Michigan in the Semifinal on Saturday. Illinois is a 2.5-point favorite over Connecticut in the National Semifinal on Saturday, per the FanDuel Sportsbook.

Arizona won 71-67 at Connecticut as a 4.5-point underdog. Connecticut was a 4.5-point favorite two games later when it beat Illinois 74-61 at Madison Square Garden. Illinois is favored by 2.5 points over Connecticut in their National Semifinal on Saturday.

Arizona enters its game on Saturday against Michigan with wins in all four games as an underdog this season. As stated above, that includes the win over Michigan. In its two losses in 2025-26, Arizona was a three-point favorite at Kansas and favored by 9.5 points in their defeate to Texas Tech.

Connecticut was favored in every game this season until it was a 4.5-point underdog in its 73-72 East Regional Final win over Duke on Sunday. Illinois has four wins and three losses straight up as an underdog during the 2025-26 season. That included the loss to Connecticut.

What the metrics say

The ESPN Basketball Power Index projects Arizona with a 48.1 percent chance to defeat Michigan and Connecticut at 41.0 percent to beat Illinois. Michigan is the BPI to win the National Championship at 33.4 percent, followed by Arizona at 30.4, Illinois at 23.5 and Connecticut at 12.9.

Michigan is second, Arizona third, Illinois sixth and Connecticut 10th in the BPI. Arizona is first in the BPI strength of record, Michigan is second, Connecticut fourth and Illinois is ninth. Arizona, Connecticcut and Michigan performed far better than Illinois this season in Net Ratings quad one games.

Entering the NCAA Tournament, Michigan, second in the NetRatings, was 17-3 against quad one opponents, Arizona was 16-2, Connecticut 7-3 and Illinois 7-8. Houston is the only team higher than 40 in the Net Ratings that Illinois has defeated in the NCAA Tournament that it has not previously played in 2025-26.

Connecticut will present a challenge for Arizona if they play in the NCAA Championship Game. The Huskies were without starting center Tarris Reed Jr. and guard Brayon Mullins, who were out when the teams played in November. First, the focus is on Michigan for head coach Tommy Lloyd and the Arizona basketball team.

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