In an NCAA Tournament simulation posted on Monday, college athletics metrics site PEARatings projects Arizona to win the Durham Regional and advance to the Fayetteville Super Regional against host Arkansas. DraftKings is not as high on Arizona in its NCAA Tournament odds.
Arizona is tied with Oklahoma State for 19th at +8000 to win the 2026 Women's College World Series. Durham Regional host Duke is tied for 16th with Oregon at +6500 to win the 2026 WCWS. Arkansas is sixth at +1200 to win the 2026 WCWS.
Marshall, Arizona's first-round opponent in the Durham Regional on Friday, is tied with several other teams at +20000 to win the WCWS. The Thundering Herd won two games and lost five against power conference opponents during the 2026 regular season.
Oklahoma is the favorite to win its fifth WCWS in six seasons at +200 by DraftKings. Texas Tech, the 11th overall seed, is the second favorite to win the WCWS per DraftKings at +300. Alabama and Texas are next at +500, followed by Nebraska at +800 and then Arkansas.
A simulation of the softball tournament https://t.co/rpxjonA3Bb pic.twitter.com/0zm9pcpNEI
— PEARatings (@PEARatings) May 11, 2026
Although the simulation posted by PEARatings projected Arizona to advance out of the Durham Regional, Duke is the overall favorite with a 66 percent chance to earn a berth in the Fayetteville Super Regional. Arizona is second with a 30 percent chance to win the Durham Regional. Marshall has a three-percent chance of winning the Durham Regional and Howard zero.
Projections compared to other regionals
Duke is the fourth-lowest favorite to advance as a regional host. LSU has a 58 percent chance of advancing as a regional host, Oklahoma State has a 60 percent chance and Oregon is at 62 percent per PEARatings. Arizona has the fourth-best chance to advance as a regional second seed per PEARatings.
Virginia Tech, playing in the Baton Rouge Regional, has a 40 percent chance to advance, Stanford has a 39 percent chance to win the Stillwater Regional and Mississippi State has a 33 percent chance to emerge as the champion of the Eugene Regional.
Arizona will begin its 2026 NCAA Tournament run at 11:30 AM Mountain Standard Time on Friday against Marshall in Durham, North Carolina. Duke hosts Howard at 9 AM MST in the first game of the Durham Regional on Friday. The winners on Friday play in the first game on Saturday and the losers play in the second one.
The regional continues on Saturday with the loser of the first game facing the winner of the second game in an elimination contest. Game one on Saturday is at 10:00 AM MST. The first Durham Regional elimination game is at 12:30 PM MST on Saturday and the second one is at 3:00 PM MST. Arizona and Marshall will be streamed on ESPN+.
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