Arizona is a 1.5-point favorite over SMU in the Holiday Bowl in early lines published by the FanDuel Sportsbook. The Wildcats are -120 on the money line and the Mustangs are +100. The Holiday Bowl Over/Under is 51.5.
Arizona finished the regular season with nine wins, three losses and a five-game winning streak. SMU won eight games and lost four during the 2025 season. SMU lost a berth in the ACC Championship Game when it lost to California in the final game of the regular season.
SMU has had an inconsistent season. The Mustangs began the 2025 season by splitting their first four games. SMU won six of its next seven games, but a loss to Wake Forest was in the middle of two three-game winning streaks.
The Holiday Bowl will be the first game for SMU after the disappointment of losing at California. Arizona enters the Holiday Bowl as one of the hottest teams nationally. Arizona and SMU enter the Holiday Bowl with differing momentum.
Arizona 2025 Point Spread History
Arizona is 8-4 against the point spread in 2025. The Wildcats are 6-2 as a favorite, 3-1 with a rest advantage, 2-0 in non-conference games, 5-3 after a win and 1-1 after a bye.
SMU 2025 Point Spread History
SMU is 5-7 against the point spread in 2025. The Mustangs are 2-1 as an underdog, 1-1 after a bye, 1-2 after a loss, 1-2 with a rest disadvantage and 0-4 in non-conference games.
Arizona Over/Under 2025 results
Four Arizona games have gone over in 2025 and eight that went under. Four 2025 Arizona games had an over/under lower than 51.5 points. Three of those four games went under. The exception was the 23-7 Arizona win over Arizona State that had an over/under of 48.5.
Arizona games have exceeded the over both times after a bye week twice in four games with a rest advantage, twice in eight contests after a win and as a favorite with the over hitting both times against teams outside the Big XII.
THE CATS ARE HOLIDAY BOWL BOUND!
— Arizona Football (@ArizonaFBall) December 7, 2025
We’ll see you in San Diego 😼 pic.twitter.com/bra9AbiEt7
SMU 2025 Over/Under results
Four out of eight SMU games went over the over/under in 2025. Three SMU games had an over/under of less than 51.5. Two of the SMU games with an over/under below 51.5 went over. Two of the three SMU games when they were an underdog went over the total.
After an SMU bye, the over and under each occurred once. After an SMU loss and with a rest disadvantage, the under occurred once and the under twice. The under occurred in all four of the non-conference games for SMU in 2025.
Early analysis
Arizona against SMU is a nearly even matchup. SMU beat Miami, by far its biggest win in 2025. SMU lost 48-45 to Baylor, who Arizona defeated 41-17. The initial matchup to watch could be Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita against an SMU pass defense that is 135th nationally, allowing passing yards per game.