Arizona is projected to play UMBC in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament in the updated ESPN Bracketology on Friday. The game would be played in San Diego. Eighth-seed Georgia and ninth-seeded North Carolina State are the other projected teams in the Arizona pod.
Arizona is close to a lock as a one seed in the West Region entering the final weekend of the regular season. The winner of the Arizona pod in San Diego would advance to San Jose. Arizona would have a big advantage in time change against UMBC and potentially Georgia or North Carolina State.
UMBC has not played in the NCAA Tournament since it became the first 16 seed to defeat a one when it shocked college basketball with a 74-54 first-round win over Maryland in 2018. Ninth-seeded Kansas State eliminated UBC 50-43 in the second round on its way to the regional final.
Arizona beat UMBC 103-78 in November 2017, four months before the Retrievers eliminated Virginia. UBC is 21-8 entering the America East Tournament. Georgetown beat UMBC 90-81 in the biggest game this season for the Retrievers against a major opponent.
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 5, 2026
How far west did they play in 2025-26
UMBC has played all of its 2025-26 games in the Eastern Time Zone. An 87-67 in January at Texas is the furthest East Georgia has played in 2025-26. North Carolina State lost two of three in the Maui Invitational that would potentially prepare them for playing in the NCAA Tournament in California.
On the Arizona half of the West Regional bracket, Lunardi projects Texas Tech as the fourth seed and North Carolina as the fifth seed. It was announced on Friday that North Carolina will be without star freshman forward Caleb Wilson for the rest of the season. That could impact North Carolina's NCAA Tournament seed.
North Carolina struggled in its West Coast trip in 2025-26 with losses at California and Stanford. Texas Tech won at Arizona, but lost at Arizona State when it lost J.T. Toppin for the season with a torn ACL. Texas Tech finishes the regular season at BYU on Saturday.
On the other half of the bracket, among the other high seeds, Lunardi projects Illinois as the two seed, Gonzaga as the three and Wisconsin as the six. Illinois split its two games in Los Angeles this season. The Fighting Illini blew out USC and lost to UCLA when Donvoan Dent went through the entire Illinois team for a game-winning layup at the buzzer.
San Diego and potentially San Jose would be significant advantages for Arizona. Arizona is familiar with traveling to both areas, particularly the Bay Area (San Jose), when they play Cal and Stanford in the Pac-12. Arizona would have to back it up after losing to Clemson in the 2024 West Regional Semifinal in Los Angeles.