After being given better than a 50 percent chance to win three of its remaining six games last week, the ESPN Football Power Index projects Arizona as a favorite in only one of its last half dozen game in the update on Sunday.
The ESPN FPI projects Arizona with a 56.0 percent chance to defeat Baylor on November 22. Arizona has better than a 49 percent chance to win in its next three games per the ESPN FPI, a 28.6 percent chance on November 15 at Cincinnati and 40.9 percent at Arizona State on November 29.
The ESPN FPI projects Arizona with a 49.4 percent chance to win at Houston on Saturday, 49.8 percent on November 1 at Colorado and 49.3 percent at home versus Kansas on November 8. Arizona needs two wins in its last six games to reach six victories and become bowl eligible.
The ESPN FPI projects Arizona to finish with 6.7 wins and 5.3 losses in its simulations and with an 85.0 percent chance to reach six wins. Arizona has the 70th toughest strength of schedule and 57th remaining SOS.
Date | Opponent | Record | Chance to win | Previous Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
10/18 | At Houston | 5-1 | 49.4 | 53.1 |
11/1 | At Colorado | 3-4 | 49.8 | 53.9 |
11/8 | Kansas | 4-3 | 49.3 | 44.6 |
11/15 | At Cincinnati | 5-1 | 28.6 | 29.1 |
11/22 | Baylor | 4-2 | 56.0 | 55.0 |
11/29 | At Arizona State | 4-2 | 40.9 | 33.3 |
Colorado is the only remaining team on the 2025 Arizona schedule with a losing record at 3-4. Colorado upset Iowa State 24-17 on Saturday. Iowa State was 23rd in the AP Top 25 week seven poll. Arizona lost 39-14 at Iowa State on September 27.
Cincinnati, 24th in the week eight AP Top 25 and USA Today Coaches Poll, is the only ranked team remaining on the Arizona schedule. Arizona State and Houston received votes in the week eight USA Today Coaches poll. A win for Houston over Arizona on Saturday would likely move the Cougars into the week nine top 25.
Arizona would likely have received votes or been ranked if it had beaten BYU instead of a 30-24 double overtime loss on Saturday. The primary goal for Arizona for the remainder of the 2025 season is to become bowl eligible. Arizona finished the season with four of its last six games on the road.