Arizona enters the West Regional Semifinal in San Jose with four consecutive losses in the Sweet 16 dating to 2017. Per Fox Sports Gambling expert Chris Fallica, Arkansas head coach John Calipari has been an underdog 11 times in the NCAA Tournament and never by as many as 6.5 points.
Arizona is favored by 7.5-points over Arkansas. Per Fallica, Calipari's teams have won seven of the 11 games outright as at least a 6.5-point underdog, are 6-2 in their last eight and 8-2-1 against the point-spread when the number is that big.
Arizona has lost three consecutive games Regional Semifinal games under Tommy Lloyd and was defeated in its last appearance in the Sweet 16 under Sean Miller in 2017. Including the 2015 West Regional Semifinal loss to Wisconsin, Arizona has five consecutive losses in the regionals.
Three of the four consecutive losses by Arizona in the Regional Semifinals came as higher seeds. Arizona lost 73-71 as a two-seed to 11th-seeded Xavier in the 2017 NCAA Tournament. Five years later, Arizona lost again in its first regional semifinal since 2017.
Arizona has lost each of its last five games in the Sweet 16 or later dating back to a 2015 Sweet 16 win. Four of those loses came as a fave. Dating back to its 2001 loss to Duke in the national championship game, Arizona is 5-13 in games in the Sweet 16 or later (3-6 as a fav)..
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) March 24, 2026
Tommy Lloyd era
Lloyd led Arizona to an unexpected 33-4 season in his first year with the Wildcats and as a head coach. Top-seeded Arizona lost 72-60 to fifth-seed Houston in San Antonio to end a magical season. After a first-round loss to Princeton in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, Arizona has returned to the regional semifinals in the past three seasons.
Second-seeded Arizona lost 77-72 to sixth-seed Clemson in the 2024 West Regional Semifinals in Los Angeles. Arizona earned a four seed with a 22-12 record entering the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Top-seeded Duke eliminated Arizona 100-93 in the East Regional Semifinal in Newark, New Jersey.
The most recent win for Calipari as at least a 6.5-point underdog in the NCAA Tournament was a 75-66 win as a 10-seed over second-seeded St. John's in 2025. Arkansas lost 85-83 in overtime to third-seeded Texas Tech in the West Regional Semifinal in San Francisco.
Duke was the only higher-seeded team to eliminate Arizona from the NCAA Tournament in the last six NCAA Tournament appearances by the Wildcats and in six of their last seven appearances dating back to the loss to Xavier in 2017 and a defeat to Wisconsin in the 2014 West Regional Final.