Wildcats Basketball: Keys to an Arizona Victory Over Gonzaga

Sean Miller and the Arizona Wildcats face a familiar foe this weekend against Gonzaga. This time, it’s at their home court, and they’ll be looking to avenge last season’s overtime loss in Tucson.

The Wildcats will be in an unfamiliar position heading into Saturday’s top 20 match-ups against the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Arizona heads to Spokane as 7.5 point underdogs in the game that will hold bragging rights to the best in the west.

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Before we look at keys to help Arizona secure a win, let’s take a look at where the two teams rank. According to Sports Illustrated, Arizona is averaging 75.1 ppg (168th nationally), allowing 62.9 ppg (37th), shooting 45% from the field (121st), and allowing opponents to shoot 41% from the field (135th). The Bulldogs, on the other hand, are averaging 79.2 ppg (97th nationally), allowing 60.7 ppg (20th), shooting 46% from the field (26th), and allowing opponents to shoot 36% from the field (10th).

Yikes… stats alone, things don’t look so great for the Wildcats. But stats don’t mean anything come tip-off time. Don’t believe me? Ask UCLA about stats when they faced Monmouth, and then ask Kentucky about stats heading into the UCLA game.

Nov 27, 2015; Fullerton, CA, USA; Arizona Wildcats guard Gabe York (1) shoots the ball as Providence Friars guard Kyron Cartwright (24) and guard Junior Lomomba (32) look on during the first half at Titan Gym. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

This game will come down to simple basics: defense, turnovers, foul trouble, and rebounds. So far this year Arizona has been able to control 3 out of the 4 listed. The Achilles heel of this team currently is turnovers. So far, this season Arizona is averaging 14 turnovers per game. As Zona Zealots own Miguel Gonzalez pointed out earlier this week, Arizona is on pace to have 435 turnovers this season. Arizona can’t give Gonzaga more chances then they already get to score.

As you all know, Arizona will be without Kaleb Tarczewski for 4-6 weeks. Ryan Anderson, Mark Tollefsen, and Dusan Ristic will be asked to step up. Anderson has been the go-to scorer for Arizona through the first seven games. He put forth a strong effort against Boise State in the last game obviously playing hurt. But late in the game, Anderson got a costly Technical foul that also gave him his 5th personal of the game. Mark Tollefsen also fouled out of that game in the second half. Arizona cannot afford to have these two get in foul trouble. The Wildcats will need their size, strength, and seniority on the court.

Nov 22, 2015; Tucson, AZ, USA; Arizona Wildcats center Dusan Ristic (14) dunks the ball against the Northwestern State Demons during the first half at McKale Center. Mandatory Credit: Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

Dusan didn’t see a lot of playing time against Boise State, mainly due to match-ups and player personnel. But with the front court line-up Gonzaga has, he will be called upon early, and often. Gonzaga is led by senior Kyle Wiltjer, a 6’10” do-it-all forward. He is a long range shooter, can post up smaller defenders, and get to the rim. Their enforcer down low is Przemek Karnowski, a 7’1″ 287 lb big bruiser. Zeus and Karnowski battled all game last year, and this is where Zeus will be missed dearly. That said, Karnowski is out against Arizona, so maybe that evens things up now.

And don’t forget about sophomore Domantas Sabonis, the 6’11” 240 lb Lithuanian. He is a spark off the bench for the Bulldogs. With the height and size of Gonzaga, you can clearly see why Anderson, Tollefsen, and Dusan will need to stay in the game.

Arizona has a clear advantage at the guard position. Gonzaga’s backcourt isn’t near as strong as they have been in recent years. They throw a lot of different players out there, but so far they have yet to show they can be go-to players in each game. Kadeem Allen, Gabe York, Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Allonzo Trier, and Elliott Pitts will have the upper hand all night. The guard position is the strength for Arizona right now, and each player needs to step up this afternoon.

Nov 13, 2015; Tucson, AZ, USA; Arizona Wildcats center Chance Comanche (21) and Pacific Tigers forward Tonko Vuko (4) and forward Jacob Lampkin (21) battle for the ball during the second half at McKale Center. Arizona won 79-61. Mandatory Credit: Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

One player to watch for is Chance Comanche. He saw his most playing time against Boise State and expects to see more with Zeus out. In the weekly press conference, Miller noted that Chance will be playing in each game moving forward, and will have a chance to play significant minutes.

Chance is young and raw, but you can’t ignore his size. At an easy 6’11”, his height and length will serve well in this game. I would match Chance up with Wiltjer when needed, but mainly Sabonis. If you watch Chance in the little minutes he’s gotten; he has been able to get great position down low, move side to side quickly, and utilize his length on defense. I’d keep an eye out on Chance and how he handles the game. With so much potential, I am a big fan of him and think he can provide quality minutes in this game.

Next: Arizona Wildcats Basketball: It's Not Time to Panic

Last year was an instant classic. Arizona had to fight back to push the game into OT and then hold on to win. You better believe this is the early season game Gonzaga circled on their schedule. It will be a very hostile environment in Spokane. Arizona will need to control the pace of play, and keep themselves in control as well. Quality shots, ball movement, and the pack-line defense will need to be sound.

The Bulldogs have lost only one game on their home court in 45 games, Miller’s teams have lost only four road games, so this will be interesting.

We have seen how good Arizona can be, but only in spurts. This will be one of the toughest match-ups the Wildcats see this year. It is sure to be an exciting game, and hopefully a big ‘W’ for Arizona.

LET’S GO!

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