Water in the Desert: Ending Arizona Basketball’s Title Drought
It’s been 21 years since Arizona Basketball’s first and only title. History suggests that a second should have come by now.
What will it take for the Wildcats to breakthrough and win championship number two?
There have been 34 different champions in the history of NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball. Of those 34 schools, 15 have gone on to win multiple titles while 19 have just one championship to their name. As we all know, Arizona is among those schools with a single championship. Arizona Basketball enjoyed huge success since the 1997 title season with Elite Eights in 1998, 2003, 2005, 2011, 2014, and 2015 as well as a Final Four/Runner-Up season in 2001. But that second championship has been elusive.
Now that the Wildcats’ fan base has waited, at times impatiently, more than 20 years since the first championship, it begs the question: when can we expect a second Arizona title? History suggests that the best chance for a second title is in the year immediately following the first. Seven schools, 47% of repeat winners, went on to cut the nets in the year following their first title. That ship has clearly sailed for Arizona.
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Second Title Behind Schedule
By the 21st season since their first title, 80% of schools with multiple championships have won a second. Viewed from this perspective, the odds of a second title are against Arizona.
Only Michigan State (21 years), North Carolina (25 years), Villanova (31 years), and Kansas (36 years) have won two or more championships with 20+ years between numbers one and two. But Wildcats fans take heart! Among that list are two of college basketball’s blue-blood programs and another two that have had tremendous success.
Arizona fans certainly hope the prospect of a second championship isn’t a question of “if” but “when.” With Sean Miller at the helm and the type of talent he can bring in, a second title seems inevitable. Let’s take a look at what it will take for Arizona to cut the nets this year.
The DNA of a Champion
- Top 20 offense, top 20 defense
- Balanced scoring
- Championship (regular season or conference tournament) experience
- Bench depth
- NBA quality players
As the 2017-2018 Arizona Wildcats season progresses, we will periodically check in to see how the team is performing in each of these five categories.
Top 20 Offense, Top 20 Defense
We used Ken Pomeroy’s college basketball rankings to evaluate the offensive and defensive efficiency of the last 10 champions. On average, championship teams ranked 9th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency. The only exceptions in this category are the 2009 North Carolina team (21st in defensive efficiency) and the 2014 Connecticut team (39th in offensive efficiency).
Wildcats fans should know that defensive efficiency isn’t a concern for Sean Miller’s teams. The bigger question has been on the offensive side. Since Miller took the helm in 2009, Arizona has ranked on average 26th in offensive efficiency.
To have a realistic shot at a national championship, Arizona will need to improve on offense. The addition of Lorenzo Romar should help in that regard. A recent article by Bruce Pascoe in the Arizona Daily Star quoted Sean Miller as saying the following about Romar:
"“From an offensive perspective, I think there’s lot of things we loved about the way his teams played. We have to be true to ourselves because there’s a lot of things we believe in, but to add some of his thoughts and allow him to make us better, it would be foolish for me or for anybody not to allow that to happen.”"
Hopefully, Romar will bring some new ideas and schemes to an Arizona offense that has seemed stagnant at a time over the last several years.
Balanced Scoring
Championship teams don’t rely too heavily on one player to win games. Doing so would make a team susceptible to a poor performance or injury. Instead, a balanced team spreads scoring among three or more players.
To quantify the degree to which a team achieves balanced scoring, we used data from Sports Reference College Basketball to calculate the difference in points per game between a team’s top scorer and its third-highest scorer. All but two of the last ten championship teams have had a first-to-third spread of fewer than 6 points. Only UConn in 2011 (13.9 point difference) and Louisville in 2013 (8.9 point difference) had larger spreads. Shout out to Kemba Walker and Russ Smith for throwing a wrench into the analysis.
Balanced scoring should be achievable for Arizona this year. A smart bet has DeAndre Ayton, Allonzo Trier, and Rawle Alkins as Arizona’s top three scorers in the upcoming season. If the two exhibition games in Spain are any indication, we can expect the Wildcats to spread the scoring around on a nightly basis.
Whether it is outside shooting or scoring from the block (two 7-footers help in that regard), the Wildcats are capable of scoring in many ways. This should mitigate any game plan that seeks to shut down one player.
Championship Experience
By the time most national champions make it to the NCAA tournament, they have won either their conference regular season or tournament titles. Or both. Cultivating an expectation of winning pays huge dividends come March and April.
In the last 10 years, only UConn in 2014 and Duke in 2015 didn’t win either their regular season or tournament championships before going on to win the big dance.
Looking forward to the Pac-12 regular season, it’s hard to believe that any team could challenge Arizona for the championship. *knock on wood* There simply isn’t enough firepower to seriously threaten Arizona’s claim as the best team in the conference. Does that mean the Wildcats will go undefeated in conference play? Absolutely not. But over the course of an 18-game regular season, it’s hard to see Arizona losing more than two or three games.
The conference tournament is another story. With 6 tournament titles, Arizona has won more than any other team in the conference. But one bad game is all it takes to ruin hopes for a seventh.
Bench Depth
Injuries happen. They’re an inevitable part of the game. Arizona fans will remember Brandon Ashley’s foot injury in 2014 and wonder what may have been. Or more recently: could Ray Smith have gotten the 2016-2017 team into the Elite Eight or beyond?
The key to successfully dealing with an injury is being able to plug-in a backup player with as little drop off as possible. That requires a deep bench. Nine of the last ten championship teams have played eight or more players at least 10 minutes per game. The only exception was Kentucky in 2012 who were blessed with a ridiculous starting five and no significant injuries. They managed to squeeze by with only seven players playing more than 10 minutes per game.
Arizona will have to rely on a deep bench when something goes wrong. Luckily the Wildcats have the bench to do so. With at least one reliable backup at every position, it wouldn’t be crazy to see as many as 11 Wildcats get significant playing time.
Of course, as the season progresses, Sean Miller will shorten his rotation and we will likely see only 8 or 9 players get meaningful playing time. But the insurance is reassuring to have in the event of injury.
NBA Quality Players
The final characteristic we identified relates to the quality of players on a championship team. Each of the last 10 champions has had at least one player that went on to play in the NBA. The average number of future NBA players on a title team is 2.8.
It’s still much too early to decide the future basketball careers of most of our Wildcats. As the year goes on and mock drafts are released, we will have a better sense of each player’s draft stock. Right now, it seems very likely that DeAndre Ayton and Allonzo Trier will get a chance in the NBA. Rawle Alkins and Emmanuel Akot also seem to have a decent shot. Time will tell.
Do the Wildcats Have What It Takes?
As we move through the season, we will have a better idea where Arizona stands in each of these categories. Look for more articles to come as data becomes available.
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The Wildcats have the potential to check every box. This may be Miller’s best shot yet at a title. After 21 long years, this could be the end of the title drought in the desert.