Arizona Basketball fans expectations were high going into the season, but maybe we all need to rethink what we base our expectations on in the future.
Expectations. The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines expectations as the act or state of expecting (anticipation), the basis for expecting (assurance) and the state of being expected. Fans of the 2017-2018 incarnation of the Arizona Basketball team entered the season with what some might now consider, out-sized expectations.
Blessed with a starting five that is the envy of 99% of the college basketball world, and what was anticipated to be among the deepest benches in the country, the Wildcats entered the non-conference season as a prohibitive favorite to break through the mythical barrier between what is considered a good team, and a legendary team, storming to Head Coach Sean Miller’s first final four, and the school’s fifth, following nearly a generation’s absence from college basketball’s biggest stage.
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National analysts and fans alike looked at the projected starting roster and saw a unique blend of talent, and experience, including that rarest of elements, experienced talent. Two senior starters, both mainstays and contributors to nearly 90 wins over the previous three seasons, Dusan Ristic, and Parker Jackson Cartwright were seen as the steadying force of a roster that was bursting with talent and scoring ability.
Allonzo Trier, among the most efficient scorers in college basketball over the previous two, abbreviated, seasons and the do-everything well, Mr. Savage Life, Rawle Alkins, both eschewed the NBA Draft, delaying their inevitable departure for the world’s biggest stage, bringing their talents back to Tucson for one more run at a Championship.
The lineup needed a lynchpin following the departure of Lauri Markkanen, the Finnish sharpshooter, who bolted for the NBA after his lone, near record-breaking season in a Wildcat uniform. In stepped a once-in-a-lifetime talent in the form of 7-foot-1 inch, DeAndre Ayton, ranked by most publications as the top recruit in the class, and a player that Coach Miller describes as a “once-in-a-generation” type of player.
Bolstering the bench with scoring ability and defensive length, Arizona was easily voted as the top team in the Pac-12 and earned a Top 5 national ranking in the Associated Press, as well as the Coaches’ preseason polls. Fans’ expectations soared. After the long, dry years in the desert, here was the team that was finally going to take their beloved Arizona Wildcats back to the Promised Land. The drought was surely over.
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The problem with expectations is that so often they are based on the unknown, and therefore it can be incredibly difficult to accurately predict an outcome. When you combine that with the emotional, and mental maturity of a group of young men who range in age from 18 – 23, that ability to consistently count on a particular result flies right out the window. Especially after a long summer of fans and media stroking egos and building up a narrative built upon hopes, rather than empirical evidence.
No one bargained for all the drama with an FBI investigation, Miller having to forgo coaching a game on the road, Zo’s PED issue arising again, or Alkins broken foot. Top it all off with the false ESPN report which got the dates wrong and was based on hearsay and not an actual recording that Mark Schlabach, the reporter, had actually heard himself resulting in his disappearance from the public for over a month and counting.
Though there were members of this team that had been through the struggles of the long college basketball season and had experienced the ups and downs that every team endures. The team did not have the vocal personalities. Perhaps the coaches and team leaders were unable to prepare the younger members of the squad for the fact that every team they played throughout the season would treat the game as their own personal NCAA Basketball Championship?
After barnstorming two vastly inferior squads on an exhibition tour in Spain. Then demolishing their first three opponents in the friendly confines of McKale Center. The opponents were likely wide-eyed and intimidated by the level of physical talent lined up across from them, not to mention the “next-level” environment created by the rabid Wildcat fans screaming down at them in numbers they were not used to experiencing.
Arizona then traveled to what was seen as a two-game formality in the Bahamas before an expected championship clash with the Villanova Wildcats, a squad also touted among the top teams in the nation and proved it by landing in the Final Four last week. It was set up for a major East vs. West clash. It was meant to be a Top 5 tilt that was a possible preview of the National Championship game.
Unfortunately for Arizona Wildcats fans, the cracks that should have been visible were masked by their dominating offensive performances over the first three games. The teams they faced in the Bahamas exploited the Cats, bursting open to what was thankfully a limited audience, as the games were only streamed on ESPN 3.
Defensive limitations, the inability to rotate and provide help defense, while allowing for recovery on open shooters, was exploited time and again, as NC State and SMU shocked the Wildcats with easy drives to the basket for uncontested lay-ins. But the team did not have their glue guy, Alkins, and his return would eventually prove to be essential to winning games.
When the team attempted to adjust, packing the lane, the lackadaisical closeouts on open three-point shooters reared its ugly head as the Purdue Boilermakers finished off Arizona in a barrage of wide-open shots from deep, humbling the Wildcats with one of the worst regular season losses in Sean Miller’s tenure as head coach. Fans were stunned as the team limped home after three losses in a row, all to teams that, in the pre-season were seen as decent, but not great, and well below the talent level of the previously high-flying Arizona Wildcats. Expectations dashed.
But the college basketball season is a funny one. The length of the year, stretching from late October until March (and April if you are very fortunate), gives teams ample opportunity to learn and grow from their mistakes. And it gives fans time to recover and in many cases even forget those early season struggles.
The team has become less perimeter-focused, as they transition to an inside-out oriented offensive approach, taking advantage of the massive talent, and size advantage they have with a starting front line that averages over seven feet, and more than 250 lbs. Since that disastrous start, the Wildcats compiled regular season Pac-12 Conference and Pac-12 Tournament crowns. As a result of the gaudy record, and success in an admittedly week Pac-12 conference, expectations once again blossomed, and the team was being discussed nationally as one of the few that could legitimately compete for a national championship.
As the end of the regular season approaches, and the post-season loomed, the questions remain, however. Were the recent positive results an accurate indication that this team has turned the corner, and matured into the type of team that can win four straight games against grueling competition, or are we witnessing another mirage in the desert? Based on the lack of elite level adversaries down the stretch, could the team get far in the tournament?
The beauty, and agony, of being a sports fan is that we never truly know until the final buzzer sounds. No. 4 ranked Arizona was the first blue blood team to be ousted from the Tournament. At the time, critics were shocked and dismayed, and brackets were broken all over the world.
Arizona Wildcats Basketball
But then Kentucky loses, No. 9 seed Florida State knocks off No. 1 seed Xavier, No. 7 Nevada beat No. 2 Cincinnati, No. 3 Michigan State was bumped out by No. 11 Syracuse, No. 2 UNC checked out against No. 7 Texas A&M and the biggest shocker of them all, No. 16 UMBC murdered No. 1 seed Virginia by 20 points. Let us not forget to mention a Final Four Cinderella team Loyola Chicago who displaced a No. 6 Miami Florida, No. 3 Tennessee and a No. 7 Nevada team to get to the final four.
Arizona’s No. 4 seed being beat by a No. 11 seed in Buffalo doesn’t seem all that shocking anymore. Each of the Final Four teams this season are seasoned teams which have chemistry with their coach and each other. The players also have something to prove, that they are better than a team of freshman and one-and-dones. Now the NBA and head of the NCAA are pushing to get rid of the one-and-done rule. This may be just what Arizona’s needs to regain National respect. Much like Luke Walton’s Lakers, the Wildcats will build a team of experienced players because they have no other choice, but it also makes sense.
No one would have predicted the remarkable run of the 1997 National Championship team, following the struggles that team faced during the regular season, but for three glorious weeks, Arizona Wildcat fans were treated to an experience that is unlike any other. In that scenario, the expectations were low, and the team vastly over-achieved; a far cry from coming into a season with the pressure of having a giant target on your back, such as has been the case this year. Maybe this should be the way forward.
Human nature makes it difficult to avoid placing expectations on the team you root for, and therefore it is hard to enjoy the ride for what it is worth. Basketball, as in life, is an arena where failure provides an opportunity to grow. As it isn’t the fan who personally fails, it can be difficult to grasp the value that these young men gain by going through those learning experiences.
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Champions are tempered through the crucible of agony; stress gives way to pain, which leads to change. In the end, however, it doesn’t really matter what our expectations of success may be. What matters most is the expectation that these young men are putting their heart and soul on the line for our enjoyment, and that we appreciate the effort for what it is. Expectations of success be damned. Instead, as the season comes to a close, simply expect to be entertained, and continue to support the program and the players who will be able to get more experience and chemistry as the year’s progress.