The late line for Arizona versus SMU in the Holiday Bowl moved from the Wildcats being favored by 2.5 points earlier this week to being +1.5 points by the FanDuel Sportsbook. Arizona is -102 on the money line and SMU is -116. The Holiday Bowl over/under is 51.5 points.
Taking the points with Arizona is -112. Laying the points and SMU is -108. Betting the over is -115 and putting money on the under is -105. SMU being favored against Arizona was a late line movement on Thursday night.
Arizona and SMU is a matchup of two highly ranked offenses and defenses. SMU is 23rd nationally, averaging 32.9 points per game and Arizona is 26th, posting 26.2 PPG. Arizona is 17th nationally, allowing 18.9 PPG and SMU is 34th, permitting 20.7 PPG.
SMU is 30th, averaging 419.0 total yards per game and Arizona is 48th, posting 404.8. Arizona is 16th, allowing 301.6 yards per game and SMU is 86th, permitting 390.6 YPG. SMU has made up for its porous defense by being adept at forcing turnovers.
Arizona and SMU odds history
Arizona is 2-2 against the point spread as an underdog in 2025. Iowa State beat Arizona as a 4.0-favorite and BYU defeated the Wildcats, favored by six points. Arizona beat Kansas State 23-17 as a 1.5-point underdog and won 30-24 at Cincinnati, getting 5.0 points.
Arizona is 8-4 against the point spread in 2025 and SMU is 5-6. SMU is 3-6 against the point spread as the favorite. The Mustangs are 3-3 straight up as the favorite in 2025. The 1.5 points are the lowest spread for an SMU game in 2025.
Prediction
Arizona enters the Holiday Bowl with a lot to play for. A win over SMU would secure the fifth 10-win season in Arizona program history. Playing in front of what could be a partisan crowd, Arizona seems more likely to win.
The over/under is tight. Both teams have good offenses and defenses. Turnovers will be important to monitor. Both teams are adept at forcing turnovers. Any turnovers could flip the outcome of the game and the over/under more than usual.
Game information
Arizona versus SMU in the Holiday Bowl will kick off at 6:00 PM Mountain Standard Time on Fox. The lead Fox announcing team of Gus Johnson on play-by-play and analyst Joel Klatt are calling the game.